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Stylized Facts on Bilateral Trade and Currency Unions; Implications for Africa

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  • Michal Hulej
  • Charalambos G Tsangarides
  • Pierre Ewenczyk

Abstract

This paper explores and quantifies several aspects of the performance of currency unions using an augmented version of the gravity model and focusing on two samples, the world and Africa. Our empirical findings suggest that, in principle, membership in a currency union should benefit Africa as much as it does the rest of the world. In addition, we find evidence from both samples that the effect of currency unions on trade is large, almost a doubling; currency unions are associated with trade creation, increase price co-movements among members, and make trade more stable; and longer duration of currency union membership brings about more benefits, although with some diminishing returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Hulej & Charalambos G Tsangarides & Pierre Ewenczyk, 2006. "Stylized Facts on Bilateral Trade and Currency Unions; Implications for Africa," IMF Working Papers 06/31, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/31
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mahvash S Qureshi & Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2010. "The Empirics of Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade; Words vs. Deeds," IMF Working Papers 10/48, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gilles Dufrenot & Valerie Mignon & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2010. "The trade-growth nexus in the developing countries: a quantile regression approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(4), pages 731-761, December.
    3. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
    4. Xavier Debrun & Catherine A Pattillo & Paul R Masson, 2010. "Should African Monetary Unions Be Expanded? An Empirical Investigation of the Scope for Monetary Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 10/157, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
    6. Paul R. Masson, 2008. "Currency Unions in Africa: Is the Trade Effect Substantial Enough to Justify their Formation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 533-547, April.
    7. Vigninou Gammadigbe & Ismaël Issifou & Daouda Sembene & Sampawende Jules Tapsoba, 2018. "Convergence et divergence budgétaire en Afrique : le rôle des Communautés économiques régionales et des Unions économiques et monétaires," Post-Print hal-01723117, HAL.
    8. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed, 2013. "Trade and thy neighbor's war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 178-195.
    9. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 2016. "Currency unions and trade: A post-EMU reassessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 78-91.
    10. Asongu, Simplice & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Tchamyou, Vanessa, 2017. "A summary of a survey on proposed African monetary unions," MPRA Paper 79637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed & Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2012. "Hard or Soft Pegs? Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Trade in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 667-680.
    12. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jeronimo Carballo & Andres Gallo, 2011. "The impact of export promotion institutions on trade: is it the intensive or the extensive margin?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 127-132.
    13. Mahvash S Qureshi, 2008. "Africa’s Oil Abundance and External Competitiveness; Do Institutions Matter?," IMF Working Papers 08/172, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Issiaka & Guerreiro, David & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "Revisiting the theory of optimum currency areas: Is the CFA franc zone sustainable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 428-441.
    15. Semedo, Gervasio & Gauthier, Laurent & Bensafta, Kamel Malik, 2012. "Pôles de convergence, gains dynamiques de l’intégration économique et monétaire en Afrique de l’Ouest : une approche en termes de clusters," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 37-85, mars.
    16. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jeronimo Carballo & Andres Gallo, 2011. "The impact of export promotion institutions on trade: is it the intensive or the extensive margin?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 127-132.
    17. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2017. "The Euro and the CFA Franc: Evidence of sectoral trade effects," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 311, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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