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Stylized Factson Bilateral Trade and Currency Unions; Implications for Africa

  • Michal Hulej
  • Charalambos G. Tsangarides
  • Pierre Ewenczyk

This paper explores and quantifies several aspects of the performance of currency unions using an augmented version of the gravity model and focusing on two samples, the world and Africa. Our empirical findings suggest that, in principle, membership in a currency union should benefit Africa as much as it does the rest of the world. In addition, we find evidence from both samples that the effect of currency unions on trade is large, almost a doubling; currency unions are associated with trade creation, increase price co-movements among members, and make trade more stable; and longer duration of currency union membership brings about more benefits, although with some diminishing returns.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/31.

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Length: 37
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/31
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  1. Arvind Subramanian & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2003. "Is Africa Integrated in the Global Economy?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 2.
  2. Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 1998. "Explaining African economic performance," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1997-02.2, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  5. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
  6. Deardorff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade : Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Papers 95-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  7. Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  8. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  9. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. David T. Coe & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1998. "North-South Trade-Is Africa Unusual?," IMF Working Papers 98/94, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Xavier Debrun & Paul Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Monetary union in West Africa: who might gain, who might lose, and why?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 454-481, May.
  12. Fielding, David & Shields, Kalvinder, 2001. "Modelling macroeconomic shocks in the CFA Franc Zone," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 199-223, October.
  13. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Working Papers 9072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2002. "Currency Unions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 409-436, May.
  15. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May.
  16. Catherine A. Pattillo & Paul R. Masson, 2001. "Monetary Union in West Africa; An Agency of Restraint for Fiscal Policies," IMF Working Papers 01/34, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Trade Policy and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," NBER Working Papers 6562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
  19. Limao, Nuno & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, and transport costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2257, The World Bank.
  20. Rodrik, Dani & Subramanian, Arvind & Trebbi, Francesco, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 3643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Fatás, Antonio & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 2692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1984. "Tobit models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 3-61.
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