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A VAR Analysis of Kenya’s Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: How Does the Central Bank’s REPO Rate Affect the Economy?

  • Kevin C. Cheng
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    This paper examines the impact of a monetary policy shock on output, prices, and the nominal effective exchange rate for Kenya using data during 1997–2005. Based on techniques commonly used in the vector autoregression literature, the main results suggest that an exogenous increase in the short-term interest rate tends to be followed by a decline in prices and appreciation in the nominal exchange rate, but has insignificant impact on output. Moreover, the paper finds that variations in the short-term interest rate account for significant fluctuations in the nominal exchange rate and prices, while accounting little for output fluctuations.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/300.

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    Length: 26
    Date of creation: 01 Dec 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/300
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    1. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    3. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Durevall, Dick & Ndung'u, Njuguna S., 1998. "A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya 1974 - 1996," Working Papers in Economics 7, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    5. Magnus Saxegaard, 2006. "Excess Liquidity and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 06/115, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0091, European Central Bank.
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