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Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt; A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey

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  • Evan C Tanner
  • Issouf Samaké

Abstract

This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.

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  • Evan C Tanner & Issouf Samaké, 2006. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt; A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 06/295, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/295
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    Cited by:

    1. Bodrova, Vera & Gvozdeva, Margarita & Kazakova, Maria, 2015. "Methods of Long-term Forecasting: Comparative Analysis and Foreign Experience of Applying," Published Papers 2310, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Ábel, István & Kóbor, Ádám, 2011. "Növekedés, deficit és adósság - fenntartható keretben
      [Growth, deficit and debt - in a sustainable framework]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 511-528.
    3. Branimir Jovanovic & Aneta Krstevska & Neda Popovska-Kamnar, 2015. "Can Monetary Policy Affect Economic Activity under Surplus Liquidity? Some Evidence from Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-03, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
    4. Betty C. Daniel & Christos Shiamptanis, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk in a Monetary Union," Working Papers 2010-3, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    5. Kazakova, Maria & Trunin, Pavel, 2015. "Long-Term Prognosis of Basic Demographic and Macroeconomic Indicators in Russia," Published Papers 2308, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    6. Murat Taşdemir & Abdullah Yalama, 2014. "Volatility Spillover Effects in Interregional Equity Markets: Empirical Evidence from Brazil and Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 190-202.
    7. Murat Tasdemir & Abdullah Yalama, 2010. "Inter-Regional Volatility Spillovers Between Emerging Capital Markets: Evidence From Turkey And Brazil," Working Papers 2010/8, Turkish Economic Association, revised Jan 2010.
    8. Gustavo Adler & Sebastian Sosa, 2016. "External Factors in Debt Sustainability Analysis: An Application to Latin America?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(5), pages 81-120, June.
    9. Andreea STOIAN, 2011. "A Retrospective Approach on Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for Overindebted European Countries," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 183-188.
    10. Tielens, J. & van Aarle, B. & Van Hove, J., 2014. "Effects of Eurobonds: A stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal, Ireland and Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 156-173.
    11. Gilles Dufrénot & Anne-Charlotte Paret, 2016. "Power-Law Distribution in the Debt-to-Fiscal Revenue Ratio: Empirical Evidence and a Theoretical Model," Working Papers halshs-01357797, HAL.
    12. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2012. "Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium," Working Paper 12-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    13. Gustavo Adler & Sebastian Sosa, 2013. "External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 13/27, International Monetary Fund.
    14. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1260-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2012. "Fiscal risk in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1289-1309.
    16. Danica Unevska-Andonova & Dijana Janevska-Stefanova, 2015. "Transmission of External Shocks in Assessing Debt Sustainability, the Case of Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-04, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
    17. Aleksandar Zdravkovic & Aleksandra Bradic-Martinovic, 2012. "Public Debt Sustainability in Western Balkan Countries," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    18. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Eugene Goryunov & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2015. "Theoretical foundations of fiscal gap as a long-term fiscal sustainability indicator and its estimates for Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 168P, pages 1-58.
    19. Viviane Luporini, 2014. "Sustainability Of Brazilian Fiscalpolicy, Once Again: Corrective Policy Response Over Time," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 064, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    20. Evan C Tanner, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability; A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed," IMF Working Papers 13/89, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2018. "Public debt dynamics: the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1087-1105, May.
    22. Kenta Inoue, 2014. "Is Correlation Puzzle Really Puzzling? Reassessing Motives Of Foreign Asset Holdings By Us Investors," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 160-172, March.
    23. Kazakova, Maria & Nesterova, Kristina, 2015. "Long-Term Forecast of the Main Parameters of the Budgetary System of Russia," Published Papers 2309, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

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    Keywords

    Brazil; Emerging markets; Economic models; Fiscal policy; Public debt; Mexico; Turkey; Vector autoregression; Tax smoothing; Sustainability; Historical Decomposition; Primary Surplus; debt ratio; fiscal sustainability; fiscal gap;

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