Rebalancing Chinaâ€™s Economy; What Does Growth Theory Tell Us?
This paper uses the standard one-sector neoclassical growth model to investigate why China's consumption has been low and investment high. It finds that the low cost of capital has been quantitatively an important factor. Theory predicts that the price of capital may have been significantly distorted in the 1990s and 2000s. The distortion could have been caused by nonperforming loans, borrowing constraints, and uncertainty over changes in government guidance in bank lending. If China is to rebalance growth towards relying more on consumption and less on exports and investment, banking sector reforms and financial market development could, therefore, turn out to be key.
|Date of creation:||01 Dec 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Steven Barnett & Ray Brooks, 2006. "Whatâ€™s Driving Investment in China?," IMF Working Papers 06/265, International Monetary Fund.
- Richard Podpiera, 2006. "Progress in Chinaâ€™s Banking Sector Reform; Has Bank Behavior Changed?," IMF Working Papers 06/71, International Monetary Fund.
- Douglas Gollin, 2002.
"Getting Income Shares Right,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
- V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen McGrattan, 2004.
"Business Cycle Accounting,"
NBER Working Papers
10351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- V V Chari & Patrick J Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2003. "Business Cycle Accounting," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000421, UCLA Department of Economics.
- V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Business cycle accounting," Working Papers 625, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- V. V. Chari & Patrick Kehoe & Ellen McGrattan, 2004. "Business Cycle Accounting," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000560, UCLA Department of Economics.
- V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2006. "Business cycle accounting," Staff Report 328, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Kuijs, Louis, 2005. "Investment and saving in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3633, The World Bank.
- Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kydland, Finn E. & Zarazaga, Carlos E., 2001.
"Argentina's lost decade,"
0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Wendy Dobson & Anil K Kashyap, 2006. "The Contradiction in China’s Gradualist Banking Reforms," Working Papers Series 08, Rotman Institute for International Business, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto.
- Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1996.
"Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations: a computable general equilibrium analysis,"
9602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
- Prescott, Edward C, 1998.
"Needed: A Theory of Total Factor Productivity,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 525-51, August.
- Suparna Chakraborty, 2005. "Real Estate Prices, Borrowing Constraints and Business Cycles -A Study of the Japanese Economy," Macroeconomics 0504012, EconWPA.
- Franco Modigliani & Shi Larry Cao, 2004. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 145-170, March.
- V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2003.
"Accounting for the Great Depression,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 2-8.
- Gomes, Joao F & Yaron, Amir & Zhang, Lu, 2003.
"Asset Prices and Business Cycles with Costly External Finance,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3927, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joao F. Gomes & Amir Yaron & Lu Zhang, 2003. "Asset Prices and Business Cycles with Costly External Finance," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 767-788, October.
- Joao Gomes & Amir Yaron & Lu Zhang, 2002. "Asset Prices and Business Cycles with Costly External Finance," NBER Working Papers 9364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eswar Prasad & Raghuram Rajan, 2006.
"Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm,"
IMF Policy Discussion Papers
06/03, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2006.
"Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach,"
China & World Economy,
Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20.
- Blanchard, Olivier J & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2006. "Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5403, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Aart Kraay, 2000. "Household Saving in China," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(3), pages 545-570, September.
- Keiichiro Kobayashi & Masaru Inaba, 2006. "Borrowing constraints and protracted recessions," Discussion papers 06011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Nehru, Vikram & Swanson, Eric & Dubey, Ashutosh, 1993. "A new database on human capital stock : sources, methodology and results," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1124, The World Bank.
- Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga, 2002.
"Online Appendix to Argentina's Lost Decade and the Subsequent Recovery Puzzle,"
kydland02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
- Wendy Dobson & Anil K. Kashyap, 2006. "The Contradiction in China's Gradualist Banking Reforms," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(2), pages 103-162.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
- V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Accounting for the Great Depression (technical appendix)," Working Papers 619, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.