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Volatility and Growth in Latin America; An Episodic Approach

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  • Ratna Sahay
  • Rishi Goyal

Abstract

This paper compares the pattern of macroeconomic volatility in 17 Latin American countries during episodes of high and low growth since 1970, examining in particular the role of policy volatility. Macroeconomic outcomes are distinguished from macroeconomic policies, structural reforms and reversals, shocks, and institutional constraints. Based on previous work, a composite measure of structural reforms is constructed for the 1970-2004 period. We find that outcomes and policies are more volatile in low growth episodes, while shocks (except U.S. interest rates) are similar across episodes. Fiscal policy volatility is associated with lower growth, but fiscal policy procyclicality is not. Low levels of market-oriented reforms and structural reform reversals are also associated with lower growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Ratna Sahay & Rishi Goyal, 2006. "Volatility and Growth in Latin America; An Episodic Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/287, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/287
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Billmeier & Isabella Massa, 2007. "What Drives Stock Market Development in the Middle East and Central Asia—Institutions, Remittances, or Natural Resources?," IMF Working Papers 07/157, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Anoop Singh, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility; The Policy Lessons from Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/166, International Monetary Fund.
    3. José María Fanelli, 2009. "Economic Policy out of the Corridor. Reflections on the Global Crisis and the Latin American Experience," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(53-54), pages 73-105, January -.
    4. Anoop Singh & Martin D. Cerisola, 2006. "Sustaining Latin America's Resurgence; Some Historical Perspectives," IMF Working Papers 06/252, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Clements, Benedict J. & Faircloth, Christopher & Verhoeven, Marijn, 2007. "Public expenditure in Latin America: trends and key policy issues," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    6. repec:eee:worbus:v:53:y:2018:i:3:p:403-414 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Allard, Gayle & Martinez, Candace A. & Williams, Christopher, 2012. "Political instability, pro-business market reforms and their impacts on national systems of innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 638-651.
    8. Alvaro CUERVO-CAZURRA & Luis Alfonso DAU, 2008. "Structural Reform And Firm Profitability In Developing Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp940, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    9. Roberto Steiner & Irene Clavijo & Natalia Salazar, 2008. "Colombia´s Efforts at Achieving Inclusive and Sustainable Growth: The Road Traveled and the Challenges Ahead," INFORMES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 009058, FEDESARROLLO.
    10. Benedict J. Clements & Christopher Faircloth & Marijn Verhoeven, 2007. "Public Expenditure in Latin America; Trends and Key Policy Issues," IMF Working Papers 07/21, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Billmeier, Andreas & Massa, Isabella, 2009. "What drives stock market development in emerging markets--institutions, remittances, or natural resources?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-35, March.
    12. Xavier, Wlamir Gonçalves & Bandeira-de-Mello, Rodrigo & Marcon, Rosilene, 2014. "Institutional environment and Business Groups' resilience in Brazil," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(5), pages 900-907.

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