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Brazil’s Long-Term Growth Performance—Trying to Explain the Puzzle

  • Ricardo Adrogué
  • Martin Cerisola
  • R. Gelos

This paper assesses Brazil's growth performance from a long-term perspective, using crosscountry and panel estimation techniques, building on the vast empirical literature on growth. The empirical evidence presented in this paper confirms that macroeconomic stability and several reforms have helped raise per capita growth in Brazil since the mid-1990s. The results also show that some long-standing structural weaknesses continue to weigh negatively on per capita growth. Reducing the high level of government consumption would help lower the overall consumption level in the economy and lower its intertemporal price-the real interest rate-thus helping to foster investment and growth.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/282.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/282
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  1. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994. "Small Sample Bias and Adjustment Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 52-58, February.
  2. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  4. David L. Lindauer & Lant Pritchett, 2002. "What’s the Big Idea? The Third Generation of Policies for Economic Growth," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2002), pages 1-40, August.
  5. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  6. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
  7. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2001. "International Liquidity and Growth in Brazil," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2001-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
  8. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2005. "Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean : Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7315.
  9. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian & Alvaro Riascos & James A. Schmitz, 2006. "Latin America in the rearview mirror," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sep.
  10. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Florian Pelgrin & Sebastian Schich & Alain de Serres, 2002. "Increases in Business Investment Rates in OECD Countries in the 1990s: How Much Can be Explained by Fundamentals?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 327, OECD Publishing.
  12. Gerhard Glomm & Jürgen Jung & Changmin Lee & Chung Tran, 2005. "Public Pensions and Capital Accumulation: The Case of Brazil," CESifo Working Paper Series 1539, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
  14. repec:rus:hseeco:70719 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
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