Procyclical Fiscal Policy; Shocks, Rules, and Institutions: A View From Mars
This paper assesses the roles of shocks, rules, and institutions as possible sources of procyclicality in fiscal policy. By employing parametric and nonparametric techniques, I reach the following four main conclusions. First, policymakers'' reactions to the business cycle is different depending on the state of the economy-fiscal policy is "acyclical" during economic bad times, while it is largely procyclical during good times. Second, fiscal rules and fiscal responsibility laws tend to reduce the deficit bias on average, and seem to enhance, rather than to weaken, countercyclical policy. However, the evidence also suggests that fiscal frameworks do not exert independent effects when the quality of institutions is accounted for. Third, strong institutions are associated to a lower deficit bias, but their effect on procyclicality is different in good and bad times, and it is subject to decreasing returns. Fourth, unlike developed countries, fiscal policy in developing countries is procyclical even during (moderate) recessions; in "good times," however, fiscal policy is actually more procyclical in developed economies.
|Date of creation:||01 Jan 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htmEmail:
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Khalid Sekkat & Marco Buti & Carlos Martinez-Mongay & Paul van den Noord, 2003. "Macroeconomic policy and structural reform: a conflict between stabilisation and flexibility?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Bouthevillain, Carine & Cour-Thimann, Philippine & van de Dool, Gerrit & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Langenus, Geert & Mohr, Matthias & Momigliano, Sandro & Tujula, Mika, 2001.
"Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach,"
Working Paper Series
0077, European Central Bank.
- Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H. & Cour-Thimann, Philippine, 2001. "Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach," Papers 77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004.
"Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules,"
NBER Working Papers
10253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Working Paper 2007-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2004. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2005.
"Rules of Thumb for Sovereign Debt Crises,"
IMF Working Papers
05/42, International Monetary Fund.
- Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
- Zvi Hercowitz & Michel Strawczynski, 2004. "Cyclical Ratcheting in Government Spending: Evidence from the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 353-361, February.
- Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 1999.
"Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers: International and Intranational Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
- Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006.
"Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 3.
- Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries; A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Alessandra Casella, 1999.
"Tradable deficit permits:efficient implementation of the Stability Pact in the European Monetary Union,"
CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 321-362, October.
- Alessandra Casella, 1999. "Tradable Deficit Permits: Efficient Implementation of the Stability Pacin the European Monetary Union," NBER Working Papers 7278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004.
"When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies,"
13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paolo Manasse, 2005.
"Deficit Limits, Budget Rules and Fiscal Policy,"
IMF Working Papers
05/120, International Monetary Fund.
- Fabrizio BALASSONE & Maura FRANCESE, .
"Cyclical Asymmetry in Fiscal Policy, Debt Accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht,"
- Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese, 2004. "Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal policy, debt accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 531, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Evan Tanner, 2003.
"Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Policy; Frank Ramsey Meets Gramm-Rudman-Hollings,"
IMF Working Papers
03/220, International Monetary Fund.
- Tanner, Evan, 2004. "Fiscal rules and countercyclical policy: Frank Ramsey meets Gramm-Rudman-Hollings," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 719-731, September.
- André Sapir & Marco Buti, 1998. "Economic policy in EMU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.