What's Driving Investment in China?
Investment has grown rapidly in China in recent years, reaching more than 40 percent of GDP. Despite good progress on bank and enterprise reforms, weaknesses remain that could contribute to inefficient investment decisions. Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate have been the drivers of fixed asset investment. Econometric analysis presented in the paper suggests that manufacturing investment is strongly correlated with firms' liquidity, largely retained earnings. Analysis of residential real estate investment shows that it is weakly correlated with real household income growth and real mortgage interest rates. A policy implication of these findings is that reducing liquidity in firms, for example by requiring state-owned enterprises to pay dividends to the government, and using monetary policy to reduce liquidity increase real interest rates, would slow investment in manufacturing and real estate.
|Date of creation:||01 Nov 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Liu Hongyu & Yun W. Park & Zheng Siqi, 2002. "The Interaction between Housing Investment and Economic Growth in China," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 5(1), pages 40-60.
- Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007.
"The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations,"
in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 421-480
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Working Papers 11306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shang-Jin Wei & Eswar Prasad, 2005. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows; Patterns and Possible Explanations," IMF Working Papers 05/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Kuijs, Louis, 2005. "Investment and saving in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3633, The World Bank.
- Shang-Jin Wei & Genevieve Boyreau-Debray, 2004. "Can China Grow Faster? a Diagnosison the Fragmentation of the Domestic Capital Market," IMF Working Papers 04/76, International Monetary Fund.
- Wensheng Peng & Matthew Yiu & Dickson Tam, 2005. "The Property Market and the Macroeconomy of the Mainland: A Cross Region Study," Working Papers 0512, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- Sean Dougherty & Richard Herd, 2005. "Fast-Falling Barriers and Growing Concentration: The Emergence of a Private Economy in China," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 471, OECD Publishing.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.