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To Smooth or Not to Smooth—The Impact of Grants and Remittances on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Jordan

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  • Martin Petri
  • Tahsin Saadi-Sedik

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of grants and workers' remittances on Jordan's long-term equilibrium real exchange rate. We estimate an equilibrium path for the Jordanian real exchange rate using the Johansen cointegration methodology over the period 1964 to 2005. Controlling for other fundamentals, we find that both grants and workers' remittances appreciate the equilibrium real exchange rate in a statistically and economically significant way. We also find that assessing deviations of the actual real exchange rate from the estimated equilibrium real exchange rate is nontrivial because different smoothing methodologies and the nonsmoothed estimates give very different results.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Petri & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "To Smooth or Not to Smooth—The Impact of Grants and Remittances on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Jordan," IMF Working Papers 06/257, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/257
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    Cited by:

    1. Cevik, Serhan & Saadi Sedik, Tahsin, 2014. "A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine: How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 34-50, May.
    2. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Dalia Hakura & Peter Montiel, 2011. "Workers’ Remittances and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 45-99, January.
    3. Jemma Dridi & Maher Hasan, 2008. "The Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria," IMF Working Papers 08/196, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Farid Farid, 2014. "The impact of exchange rate policy on remittances in Morocco: A Threshold VAR analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2351-2360.
    5. Mariem Brahim & Nader Nefzi & Hamed Sambo, 2017. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rates in MENA countries: What is the long run impact?," CEPN Working Papers 2017-15, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    6. Joannes Mongardini & Alexander Chudik, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium; Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/90, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Huidan Huidan Lin, 2011. "Determinants of Remittances; Evidence From tonga," IMF Working Papers 11/18, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Naheem Mahtab, 2015. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Inflow of Remittance in Bangladesh," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 2(1), pages 21-31.
    9. Mishra, Prachi & Montiel, Peter J & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2010. "Monetary transmission in low income countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 7951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Viktors Ajevskis & Ramune Rimgailaite & Uldis Rutkaste & Olegs Tkacevs, 2012. "The Assesment of Equilibrium Real Echange Rate of Latvia," Working Papers 2012/04, Latvijas Banka.
    11. Christos Nikas & Student Anastasia Blouchoutzi, 2014. "Emigrants’ Remittances and the “Dutch Disease” in Small Transition Economies: the Case Of Albania and Moldova," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(1), pages 45-65, March.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 09/61, International Monetary Fund.
    13. World Bank, 2008. "Jordan - Resolving Jordan's Labor Market Paradox of Concurrent Economic Growth and High Unemployment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 18907, The World Bank.
    14. Eugenio M Cerutti & Mario Mansilla, 2008. "Bolivia; The Hydrocarbons Boom and the Risk of Dutch Disease," IMF Working Papers 08/154, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick PLANE & Tidiane KINDA, 2010. "Capital Flows and their Impact on the Real Effective Exchange Rate," Working Papers 201032, CERDI.
    16. Noura Abu Asab, 2017. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Jordan: The Permanent Equilibrium Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(3), pages 29-37, March.
    17. Joannes Mongardini & Brett Rayner, 2009. "Grants, Remittances, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/75, International Monetary Fund.
    18. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Kyrgyz Republic; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 16/56, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Mariem Brahim & Nader Nefzi & Hamed Sambo, 2017. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rates in MENA countries: What is the long run impact?," CEPN Working Papers hal-01583564, HAL.

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