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Fiscal Consolidation in Israel; A Global Fiscal Model Perspective

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  • Natan P. Epstein
  • Selim Elekdag
  • Marialuz Moreno Badia

Abstract

Fiscal consolidation has become an important policy prescription for many emerging market countries (EMCs), particularly for the highly indebted ones. Although prudent fiscal policies tend to reduce vulnerabilities, their implementation is usually postponed. This paper represents, to the best of our knowledge, one of the first attempts in the literature to quantify the costs of delaying fiscal consolidation in an EMC. In particular, using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model (GFM), we find that early consolidation through expenditure cuts would result in a substantial increase in Israel's long-term output growth relative to the case with delayed fiscal adjustment. Using an alternative fiscal instrument, we find that delaying tax cuts would result in cumulative real GDP that is much larger than otherwise.

Suggested Citation

  • Natan P. Epstein & Selim Elekdag & Marialuz Moreno Badia, 2006. "Fiscal Consolidation in Israel; A Global Fiscal Model Perspective," IMF Working Papers 06/253, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/253
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Dirk V Muir & Douglas Laxton & Dennis P Botman & Andrei Romanov, 2006. "A New-Open-Economy Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 06/45, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Barry, Frank & Devereux, Michael B., 2003. "Expansionary fiscal contraction: A theoretical exploration," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-23, March.
    7. Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, December.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Israel; Report on Observance of Standards and Codes-Fiscal Transparency Module," IMF Staff Country Reports 04/112, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Perotti, Roberto, 1998. " The Political Economy of Fiscal Consolidations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 367-394, March.
    10. Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Michael Kumhof & Dirk V Muir, 2010. "The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure," IMF Working Papers 10/34, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steven A. Symansky & Xavier Debrun & Natan P. Epstein, 2008. "A New Fiscal Rule; Should Israel “Go Swiss?”," IMF Working Papers 08/87, International Monetary Fund.

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