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Political Instability and Inflation Volatility

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  • Francisco José Veiga
  • Ari Aisen

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the causes of worldwide diversity of inflation volatility. We show that higher degrees of political instability, ideological polarization, and political fragmentation are associated with higher inflation volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco José Veiga & Ari Aisen, 2006. "Political Instability and Inflation Volatility," IMF Working Papers 06/212, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/212
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2006. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1379-1389, August.
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    14. Brumm, Harold J., 2006. "The effect of central bank independence on inflation in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 189-193, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sang-Heui Lee & Jay Wyk, 2015. "National institutions and logistic performance: a path analysis," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 9(4), pages 733-747, December.
    2. Salahodjaev, Raufhon & Chepel, Sergey, 2014. "Institutional Quality and Inflation," MPRA Paper 55272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mazhar, Ummad & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2017. "Taxing the unobservable: The impact of the shadow economy on inflation and taxation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 89-103.
    4. Christoph S. Weber, 2016. "Central Bank Transparency and Inflation (Volatility) – New Evidence," Working Papers 163, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    5. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2011. "Consequences of Political Instability, Governance and Bureaucratic Corruption on Inflation and Growth: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 773-807.
    6. Berggren, Niclas & Bergh, Andreas & Bjørnskov, Christian, 2012. "The growth effects of institutional instability," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 187-224, June.
    7. Szilard Erhart & Harmen Lehment & Jose Vasquez Paz, 2010. "Monetary policy committee size and inflation volatility," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 411-421, December.
    8. Bruno Albuquerque, 2012. "Fiscal institutions and public spending volatility in Europe," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2017. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries: Do the inflation environment, monetary policy regime and central bank behavior matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 20-38.
    10. Qureshi, Irfan, 2015. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Central Bank Independence," MPRA Paper 81646, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2017.
    11. repec:kap:itaxpf:v:24:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10797-016-9428-x is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 91-115, March.
    13. Shonchoy, Abu S. & Tsubota, Kenmei, 2015. "Economic impact of political protests (strikes) on manufacturing firms : evidence from Bangladesh," IDE Discussion Papers 523, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    14. Tang, Chor Foon & Abosedra, Salah, 2014. "The impacts of tourism, energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the MENA countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 458-464.
    15. Gernot Pehnelt, 2007. "Globalisation and Inflation in OECD Countries," Jena Economic Research Papers 2007-055, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    16. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Haan, Jakob de, 2010. "When is a central bank governor replaced? Evidence based on a new data set," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 766-781, September.
    17. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Suardi, Sandy, 2009. "Macroeconomic Volatility, Trade and Financial Liberalization in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1623-1636, October.
    18. Babajide Fowowe, 2011. "Financial Sector Reforms And Private Investment In Sub-Saharan African Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 79-97, September.
    19. María García-Vega & José Herce, 2011. "Does tenure in office affect regional growth? The role of public capital productivity," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 75-92, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Economic conditions; Inflation; volatility; political instability; institutions; inflation rates; high inflation; monetary fund;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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