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Economic Transformation, Population Growth, and the Long-Run World Income Distribution

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  • Marcos d Chamon
  • Michael R Kremer

Abstract

This paper considers the long-run evolution of the world economy in a model where countries' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries. Whether or not the world economy converges to widespread prosperity depends on the population growth differential between developing and advanced economies, the rate at which countries develop, and potentially on initial conditions. A calibration using historical data suggests that the long-run prospects for lagging developing regions, such as Africa, likely hinge on the sufficiently rapid development of China and India.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos d Chamon & Michael R Kremer, 2006. "Economic Transformation, Population Growth, and the Long-Run World Income Distribution," IMF Working Papers 06/21, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2013. "Positive and Negative Population Growth and Long-Run Trade Patterns: A Non-Scale Growth Model," Discussion papers e-13-004, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    2. Carter, Patrick & Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Temple, Jonathan, 2015. "Dynamic aid allocation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 291-304.
    3. Cabral, René & García-Díaz, Rocío & Mollick, André Varella, 2016. "Does globalization affect top income inequality?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 916-940.
    4. Ou, Xunmin & Xiaoyu, Yan & Zhang, Xiliang, 2011. "Life-cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions for electricity generation and supply in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 289-297, January.
    5. Luis Carvalho & Aurora A.C. Teixeira, 2011. "Where are the poor in International Economics?," FEP Working Papers 425, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    6. Coccia, Mario, 2014. "Driving forces of technological change: The relation between population growth and technological innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 52-65.
    7. Mario Coccia, 2013. "Population and technological innovation: the optimal interaction across modern countries," CERIS Working Paper 201307, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY -NOW- Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    8. Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions: Empirical evidence from 69 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 376-382, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Economic models; Population; Income distribution; International trade; growth; economic development; world economy; population growth; world population; population growth rates; Economic Growth of Open Economies; One; Two; and Multisector Growth Models; Econocmi Development;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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