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A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager

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  • Michael G. Papaioannou

Abstract

This paper presents some conventional and new measures of market, credit, and liquidity risks for government bonds. These measures are analyzed from the perspective of a sovereign's debt manager. In particular, it examines duration, convexity, M-square, skewness, kurtosis, and VaR statistics as measures of interest rate exposure; a VaR statistic as the prominent measure of exchange rate exposure; the balance sheet approach (or contingent claims approach), and its consequent probability of default as the most promising measure of credit risk exposure; and an elasticity approach and a VaR statistic to measure liquidity risk. Along with the formulas for the various statistics proposed, we provide simple examples of their application to some common risk valuation cases. Finally, we present an integrated approach for the simultaneous estimation of a portfolio's interest rate and exchange rate risk using the VaR methodology. The integrated approach is then extended to also include N risk factors. This approach allows us to measure the total risk of a portfolio, provided that the volatilities and correlations among the risk factors can be estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael G. Papaioannou, 2006. "A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager," IMF Working Papers 06/195, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/195
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    2. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Anil Bangia & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 1998. "Modeling Liquidity Risk With Implications for Traditional Market Risk Measurement and Management," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-062, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    5. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. " An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
    6. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    8. Linsmeier, Thomas J. & Pearson, Neil D., 1996. "Risk measurement: an introduction to value at risk," ACE Reports 14796, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    9. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69.
    10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    11. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    12. Michael T. Gapen & Dale F. Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Yingbin Xiao, 2005. "Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims," IMF Working Papers 05/155, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Udaibir S. Das & Yinqiu Lu & Michael G. Papaioannou & Iva Petrova, 2013. "Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management—Conceptual Issues," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 2, pages 330-355.
    2. Magdalena Polan & Parmeshwar Ramlogan & Carlos I. Medeiros, 2007. "A Primer on Sovereign Debt Buybacks and Swaps," IMF Working Papers 07/58, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Debt management; Debt; Market risk; International financial markets; Liquidity risk; Risk measurement; bond; bonds; probability; standard deviation; covariance;

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