IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/06-193.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Natural-Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy; Lessons from Gabon

Author

Listed:
  • Jan-Peter Olters
  • Daniel Leigh

Abstract

While models based on Friedman's (1957) permanent-income hypothesis can provide oilproducing countries with long-run fiscal targets, they usually abstract from short-run costs associated with consolidation. This paper proposes a model that takes such adjustment costs (or "habits") into account. Further operational realism is added by permitting differential interest rates on sovereign debt and financial assets. The approach is applied to Gabon, where oil reserves are expected to be exhausted in 30 years. The results suggest that Gabon's current fiscal-policy stance cannot be maintained, while the presence of habits justifies smoothing the bulk of the adjustment toward the sustainable level over three to five years.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan-Peter Olters & Daniel Leigh, 2006. "Natural-Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy; Lessons from Gabon," IMF Working Papers 06/193, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/193
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19816
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. "Institutions and the Resource Curse," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 1-20, January.
    2. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alonso A Segura Vasi, 2006. "Management of Oil Wealth Under the Permanent Income Hypothesis; The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe," IMF Working Papers 06/183, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Christopher Carroll, 2002. "'Risky Habits' and the Marginal Propensity to Consume Out Of Permanent Income," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 42, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    6. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-543, June.
    7. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    8. Thomas Baunsgaard, 2003. "Fiscal Policy in Nigeria; Any Role for Rules?," IMF Working Papers 03/155, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "An Alternative Interpretation of the 'Resource Curse': Theory and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 9424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Velculescu Delia, 2004. "Intergenerational Habits, Fiscal Policy, and Welfare," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, September.
    11. Carlos A Leite & Jens Weidmann, 1999. "Does Mother Nature Corrupt? Natural Resources, Corruption, and Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 99/85, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Jan-Peter OLTERS, 2004. "The Political Business Cycle At Sixty: Towards A Neo-Kaleckian Understanding Of Political Economy," Cahiers d’économie politique / Papers in Political Economy, L'Harmattan, issue 46, pages 91-130.
    13. Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 2005. "Asset Policies During an Oil Windfall: Some Simple Analytics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(10), pages 1401-1415, October.
    14. Gunnar Tersman, 1991. "Oil, National Wealth, and Current and Future Consumption Possibilities," IMF Working Papers 91/60, International Monetary Fund.
    15. H. Takizawa & E. H. Gardner & Kenichi Ueda, 2004. "Are Developing Countries Better Off Spending Their Oil Wealth Upfront?," IMF Working Papers 04/141, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Joseph Ntamatungiro, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability in Heavily Indebted Countries Dependenton Nonrenewable Resources; The Case of Gabon," IMF Working Papers 04/30, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christian B. Mulder & Amadou N Sy & Yinqiu Lu & Udaibir S Das, 2009. "Setting Up a Sovereign Wealth Fund; Some Policy and Operational Considerations," IMF Working Papers 09/179, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Torfinn Harding & Frederick Ploeg, 2013. "Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(5), pages 827-866, October.
    3. Amin Karimu & George Adu & George Marbuah & Justice Tei Mensah & Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah, 2017. "Natural Resource Revenues and Public Investment in Resource-rich Economies in Sub-Saharan Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 107-130, November.
    4. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J, 2008. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues in Developing Economies: Sovereign Wealth Funds and Optimal Tradeoffs Between Citizen Dividends, Public Infrastructure and Debt Reduction," CEPR Discussion Papers 6954, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Jarmuzek Mariusz & Mesa Puyo Diego & Nakhle Najla, 2016. "Designing a Fiscal Framework for a Prospective Commodity-producer: Options for Lebanon," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 257-278, December.
    6. Paul Collier & Rick Van Der Ploeg & Michael Spence & Anthony J Venables, 2010. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 84-118, April.
    7. Terheggen, Anne, 2010. "The new kid in the forest: the impact of China's resource demand on Gabon's tropical timber value chain," MPRA Paper 37982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Djiofack, Calvin Z. & Omgba, Luc Désiré, 2011. "Oil depletion and development in Cameroon: A critical appraisal of the permanent income hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7202-7216.
    9. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource‐Rich Developing Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 1-30, March.
    10. Wojciech Maliszewski, 2009. "Fiscal Policy Rules for Oil-Producing Countries; A Welfare-Based Assessment," IMF Working Papers 09/126, International Monetary Fund.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Bolivia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 07/249, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2013. "Exogenous oil shocks, fiscal policies and sector reallocations in oil producing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 42-57.
    13. Torfinn Harding & Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2009. "Is Norway's Bird-in-Hand Stabilization Fund Prudent Enough? Fiscal Reactions to Hydrocarbon Windfalls and Graying Populations," CESifo Working Paper Series 2830, CESifo Group Munich.
    14. Alonso A Segura Vasi, 2006. "Management of Oil Wealth Under the Permanent Income Hypothesis; The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe," IMF Working Papers 06/183, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Udaibir S. Das & Yinqiu Lu & Michael G. Papaioannou & Iva Petrova, 2013. "Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management—Conceptual Issues," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 2, pages 330-355.
    16. Alessandro Cologni & Matteo Manera, 2011. "Exogenous Oil Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Sector Reallocations in Oil Producing Countries," Working Papers 2011.55, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    17. Daniel Leigh & Etibar Jafarov, 2007. "Alternative Fiscal Rules for Norway," IMF Working Papers 07/241, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ilkin Sabiroglu & Samad Bashirli & Faiq Qasimli, 2011. "Creating a Favourable Deployment Mechanism of Oil and Gas Revenues with Regard to Volatile Oil Prices: The Case of Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(1), pages 179-199, September.
    19. Thomas McGregor, 2017. "Fiscal Options for Absorbing a Windfall of Natural Resource Revenues – A CGE Model of Oil Discovery in Uganda," OxCarre Working Papers 186, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    20. El Anshasy, Amany A. & Bradley, Michael D., 2012. "Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 605-620.
    21. Stéphane Carcillo & Mauricio Villafuerte & Daniel Leigh, 2007. "Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy; Lessons from the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 07/80, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Ludvig Söderling & Hanan Morsy & Martin Petri & Martin Hommes & Manal Fouad & Wojciech Maliszewski, 2007. "Public Debt and Fiscal Vulnerability in the Middle East," IMF Working Papers 07/12, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Jean-Luc Hélis & Teresa Daban Sanchez, 2010. "A Public Financial Management Framework for Resources-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/72, International Monetary Fund.
    24. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Norway; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 07/197, International Monetary Fund.
    25. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Chad; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 09/67, International Monetary Fund.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/193. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.