IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Fiscal and Monetary Nexus in Emerging Market Economies; How Does Debt Matter?

  • Garima Vasishtha
  • Taimur Baig
  • Manmohan S. Kumar
  • Edda Zoli

This paper examines two main aspects of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in emerging market economies. First, it explores the interest rate-inflation relationship in economies with different levels of external and domestic public debt using panel- and crosssection data. The results show that interest rate-inflation elasticity weakens with debt/GDP and external debt/GDP. Second, it utilizes high-frequency data from Brazil, Turkey, and Poland to examine how market-determined variables react to economic news. The results suggest that when vulnerabilities are high, budget news has the most significant impact on country spreads and interest rates, and the impact of monetary policy is weakened.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19374
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/184.

as
in new window

Length: 43
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/184
Contact details of provider: Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htmEmail:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Martin S. Feldstein, 1986. "The Budget Deficit and the Dollar," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 355-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Guy Debelle & Stanley Fischer, 1994. "How independent should a central bank be?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 38, pages 195-225.
  3. Evan Tanner & Alberto M. Ramos, 2002. "Fiscal Sustainability and Monetary Versus Fiscal Dominance; Evidence From Brazil, 1991-2000," IMF Working Papers 02/5, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
  5. V.V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: some recent results," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 519-546.
  6. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
  7. Beetsma, Roel & Jensen, Henrik, 2002. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a micro-founded model of a monetary union," Working Paper Series 0166, European Central Bank.
  8. Plosser, Charles I., 1987. "Fiscal policy and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-367, September.
  9. Ashoka Mody & Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Financial Reform; What Shakes it? What Shapes it?," IMF Working Papers 03/70, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
  11. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Diba, Behzad, 1996. "Fiscal Constraints on Central Bank Independence and Price Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 1463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  14. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1999. "What triggers market jitters: a chronicle of the Asian crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 634, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 1998. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," NBER Working Papers 6471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  17. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
  18. Kitchen, John, 1996. "Domestic and international financial market responses to Federal deficit announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 239-254, April.
  19. George Kopits, 2000. "How Can Fiscal Policy Help Avert Currency Crises?," IMF Working Papers 00/185, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Isabel Correia & Bernardino Adao, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Open Economies," 2005 Meeting Papers 923, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Fratianni, Michele & Spinelli, Franco, 2001. "Fiscal Dominance and Money Growth in Italy: The Long Record," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 252-272, April.
  22. Isabel Correia & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2008. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: equivalence results," Staff Report 403, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  23. Richard Hemming & Axel Schimmelpfennig & Michael Kell, 2003. "Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 218, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2001. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 977-987, May.
  25. Olcay Yucel Emir & Fatih Ozatay & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2004. "High Public Debt and Effects of News on Interest Rates," Working Papers 0403, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  26. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Jess Benhabib & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March.
  27. Andritzky, Jochen R. & Bannister, Geoffrey J. & Tamirisa, Natalia T., 2007. "The impact of macroeconomic announcements on emerging market bonds," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 20-37, March.
  28. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2000. "Understanding the fiscal theory of the price level," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-38.
  29. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier.
  30. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "Price Level Determinacy and Monetary Policy under a Balanced-Budget Requirement," Departmental Working Papers 199833, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  31. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Isabel Schnabel, 2002. "Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending: A Test," IMF Working Papers 02/181, International Monetary Fund.
  32. Wachtel, Paul & Young, John, 1987. "Deficit Announcements and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 1007-12, December.
  33. John B. Taylor, 1995. "Monetary policy implications of greater fiscal discipline," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 151-170.
  34. Axel Dreher & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "When Is a Central Bank Governor Fired? Evidence Based on a New Data Set," KOF Working papers 06-143, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  35. Douglas W. Elmendorf, 1996. "The effects of deficit-reduction laws on real interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  36. Beck, Stacie E., 1993. "The Ricardian equivalence proposition: evidence from foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 154-169, April.
  37. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-34, September.
  38. Steven B. Kamin & Karsten von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging market credit spreads in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 653, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  39. Edda Zoli, 2004. "Credit Rationing in Emerging Economies' Access to Global Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/70, International Monetary Fund.
  40. Robert Ford & Douglas Laxton, 1995. "World Public Debt and Real Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 95/30, International Monetary Fund.
  41. Melitz, Jacques, 1997. "Some Cross-Country Evidence about Debt, Deficits and the Behaviour of Monetary and Fiscal Authorities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  42. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1991. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Some Recent Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 540-42, August.
  43. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Mart´in Uribe & Vivian Z. Yue, 2003. "Country spreads and emerging countries," Working Paper Series 2004-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  45. Marco BUTI & Werner ROEGER & Jan IN'T VELD, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions under a Stability Pact," Economics Working Papers ECO2001/08, European University Institute.
  46. Cukierman Alex, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, And Independance: Theory And Evidence," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 10, December.
  47. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521671798 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
  49. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521633178 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Zelal Aktas & Neslihan Kaya & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Price Puzzle in Emerging Markets : Evidence from the Turkish Economy Using Model Based Risk Premium Derived from Domestic Fundamentals," Working Papers 0502, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  51. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1995. "Sovereign credit ratings," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 1(Jun).
  52. Douglas McMillin, W. & Koray, Faik, 1990. "Does government debt affect the exchange rate? An empirical analysis of the U.S.--Canadian exchange rate," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 279-288, November.
  53. Taimur Baig & Abdul Abiad, 2005. "Underlying Factors Driving Fiscal Effort in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 05/106, International Monetary Fund.
  54. Boothe, Paul M. & Reid, Bradford G., 1989. "Asset returns and government budgets in a small open economy : Empirical evidence for Canada," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 65-77, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)

or (Hassan Zaidi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.