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Management of Oil Wealth Under the Permanent Income Hypothesis; The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe

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  • Alonso A Segura Vasi

Abstract

This paper documents the protracted process of shaping the rules governing oil operations in São Tomé and Príncipe. It analyzes the institutional framework for oil sector development, which applies Milton Friedman's permanent income hypothesis to the management of oil resources. São Tomé and Príncipe is the first country in Africa to adopt this rule. Finally, the paper offers a preliminary quantitative analysis of the impact of oil sector development on government consumption and savings. It shows that the country's oil wealth could be significant, which would enable sustainable government consumption and intergenerational equity through a gradual buildup of the Permanent Fund for Future Generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Alonso A Segura Vasi, 2006. "Management of Oil Wealth Under the Permanent Income Hypothesis; The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe," IMF Working Papers 06/183, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/183
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:ipn:libros:017 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Amin Karimu & George Adu & George Marbuah & Justice Tei Mensah & Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah, 2017. "Natural Resource Revenues and Public Investment in Resource-rich Economies in Sub-Saharan Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 107-130, November.
    3. Eduardo Engel & Christopher Neilson & Rodrigo Valdés, 2013. "Chile’s Fiscal Rule as Social Insurance," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.), Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 10, pages 393-425 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Yelena, Kalyuzhnova, 2011. "The National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK): From accumulation to stress-test to global future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6650-6657, October.
    5. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J, 2008. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues in Developing Economies: Sovereign Wealth Funds and Optimal Tradeoffs Between Citizen Dividends, Public Infrastructure and Debt Reduction," CEPR Discussion Papers 6954, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jan-Peter Olters & Daniel Leigh, 2006. "Natural-Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy; Lessons from Gabon," IMF Working Papers 06/193, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Alonso A Segura Vasi & Walter Zarate & Gonzalo C Pastor Campos & Ulrich H Klueh, 2007. "Inter-sectoral Linkages and Local Content in Extractive Industries and Beyond – The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe," IMF Working Papers 07/213, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Joseph, Mawejje & Lawrence, Bategeka, 2013. "Accelerating Growth and Maintaining Intergenerational Equity Using Oil Resources in Uganda," Research Series 167526, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    9. Alun H. Thomas & Jun I Kim & Aqib Aslam, 2008. "Equilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/198, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Jan-Peter Olters, 2007. "Old Curses, New Approaches? Fiscal Benchmarks for Oil-Producing Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 07/107, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Alun H. Thomas & Tamim Bayoumi, 2009. "Today versus Tomorrow - The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income," IMF Working Papers 09/248, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Peter Wierts & Guido Schotten, 2008. "Dutch natural Gas Revenues and Fiscal Policy: Theory versus Practice," DNB Occasional Studies 605, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Abbas Al-Mejren, 2015. "Impacts of Fiscal Legal Setting and Institutions on Budget Outcomes in the Rentire State of Kuwait," Working Papers 920, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2015.
    14. Jiří Sýkora, 2013. "Oil in Timor-Leste: A Ticket to Prosperity?," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(3), pages 68-85.
    15. Wojciech Maliszewski, 2009. "Fiscal Policy Rules for Oil-Producing Countries; A Welfare-Based Assessment," IMF Working Papers 09/126, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Klueh, Ulrich H. & Pastor, Gonzalo & Segura, Alonso, 2009. "Policies to improve the local impact from hydrocarbon extraction: Observations on West Africa and possible lessons for Central Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1128-1144, March.
    17. Leslie Shiell & Colin Busby, 2008. "Resource Revenues and Fiscal Sustainability in Alberta," Working Papers 0807E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    18. Ruslan Aliyev, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Developing Economies," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp466, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    19. Ilkin Sabiroglu & Samad Bashirli & Faiq Qasimli, 2011. "Creating a Favourable Deployment Mechanism of Oil and Gas Revenues with Regard to Volatile Oil Prices: The Case of Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(1), pages 179-199, September.
    20. Stéphane Carcillo & Mauricio Villafuerte & Daniel Leigh, 2007. "Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy; Lessons from the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 07/80, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Issouf Samaké & Priscilla S Muthoora & Bruno Versailles, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability, Public Investment, and Growth in Natural Resource-Rich, Low-Income Countries; The Case of Cameroon," IMF Working Papers 13/144, International Monetary Fund.
    22. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Islamic Republic of Iran; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 08/285, International Monetary Fund.
    23. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Chad; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 09/67, International Monetary Fund.

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    Keywords

    Oil resources; Oil revenues; Fiscal rules; São Tomé and Príncipe; permanent income hypothesis; oil production; oil prices; Sao Tome and Principe;

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