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How Might a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances Affect Global Wealth?

  • Francis E. Warnock
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    Partly reflecting structural advantages such a liquidity and strong investor protection, foreigners have built up extremely large positions in U.S. (as well as other dollar-denominated) financial assets. This paper describes the impact on global wealth of an unanticipated shock to U.S. financial markets. For every 10 percent decline in the dollar, U.S. equity markets, and U.S. bond markets, total wealth losses to foreigners could amount to about 5 percentage points of foreign GDP. Four stylized facts emerge: (i) foreign countries, particularly emerging markets, are more exposed to U.S. bonds than U.S. equities; (ii) U.S. exposure has increased for most countries; (iii) on average, U.S. asset holdings of developed countries and emerging markets (scaled by GDP) are very similar; and (iv) based on their reserve positions, wealth losses of emerging market governments could, on average, amount to about 2¾ percentage points of their GDP.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/170.

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    Length: 28
    Date of creation: 01 Jul 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/170
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    1. Cedric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
    2. Bong-Chan Kho & René M. Stulz & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Financial Globalization, Governance, and the Evolution of the Home Bias," NBER Working Papers 12389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Richard H. Clarida, 2006. "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 12194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2004. "Foreign participation in local-currency bond markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 794, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2005. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-38, January.
    6. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Global Bond Portfolios and EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp168, IIIS.
    7. Gagnon, Joseph E., 2009. "Currency crashes and bond yields in industrial countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 161-181, February.
    8. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp103, IIIS.
    9. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2005. "The International Equity Holdings of Euro Area Investors," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp104, IIIS.
    10. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August.
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