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Macroeconomic Volatility; The Policy Lessons from Latin America


  • Anoop Singh


The recent recovery in Latin America has been impressive but also raises the question whether this represents a fundamental break with the region's history of boom-bust cycles. The paper traces how this history of macroeconomic volatility and financial crisis over the past century has adversely impacted on growth and other development indicators, and the role played by policy instability. The paper then concludes that recent policies in the region offer encouragement that these vulnerabilities are being addressed, but notes that an important agenda still remains to be addressed.

Suggested Citation

  • Anoop Singh, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility; The Policy Lessons from Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/166, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/166

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ernesto Stein & Ernesto Talvi & Alejandro Grisanti, 1999. "Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance: The Latin American Experience," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 103-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Edwards, Sebastian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2005. "Flexible exchange rates as shock absorbers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2079-2105, November.
    5. Alesina, Alberto & Hausmann, Ricardo & Hommes, Rudolf & Stein, Ernesto, 1999. "Budget institutions and fiscal performance in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 253-273, August.
    6. Ratna Sahay & Rishi Goyal, 2006. "Volatility and Growth in Latin America; An Episodic Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/287, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Aiolfi, Marco & Catão, Luis A.V. & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Common factors in Latin America's business cycles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 212-228, July.
    8. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2005. "Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean : Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7315, June.
    9. Catao, Luis A.V. & Terrones, Marco E., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 529-554, April.
    10. Goohoon Kwon & Lavern McFarlane & Wayne Robinson, 2006. "Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation; A Cross-Country Study and Its Application to Jamaica," IMF Working Papers 06/121, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.
    12. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Anthony Annett, 2001. "Social Fractionalization, Political Instability, and the Size of Government," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-7.
    14. repec:rus:hseeco:123927 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Michael Mussa, 2002. "Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa67, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Manoel Bittencourt, 2007. "Macroeconomic Performance and Inequality: Brazil 1983-1994," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 163, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Bittencourt, Manoel, 2011. "Inflation and financial development: Evidence from Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 91-99.
    3. Campos, Nauro F & Kinoshita, Yuko, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment and Structural Reforms: Evidence from Eastern Europe and Latin America," IZA Discussion Papers 3332, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Manoel Bittencourt, 2010. "Financial development and inequality: Brazil 1985–1994," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 113-130, May.
    5. Christine Carton Madura, 2009. "Mecanismos kaldorianos del crecimiento regional: Aplicación empírica al caso del ALADI (1980-2007)," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 8, pages 1-24, May.
    6. Anoop Singh & Martin D. Cerisola, 2006. "Sustaining Latin America's Resurgence; Some Historical Perspectives," IMF Working Papers 06/252, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Bittencourt, Manoel, 2012. "Financial development and economic growth in Latin America: Is Schumpeter right?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 341-355.
    8. Rolando Ossowski & Alberto Gonzáles-Castillo, 2012. "Manna from Heaven: The Impact of Nonrenewable Resource Revenues on Other Revenues of Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4045, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Bittencourt, Manoel, 2012. "Inflation and economic growth in Latin America: Some panel time-series evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 333-340.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Uruguay; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 16/63, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ricardo Ffrench-Davis, 2008. "From Financieristic To Real Macroeconomics: Seeking Development Convergence In Ees," Working Papers wp272, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    12. Nora Lustig & Jaime Ros, 2011. "Latin America's Economic Challenges: Lessons for Emerging Economies," Working Papers 1112, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    13. Manoel Bittencourt, 2010. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Latin America: Schumpeter is Right!," Working Papers 201014, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Jeronimo Zettelmeyer, 2006. "Growth and Reforms in Latin America; A Survey of Facts and Arguments," IMF Working Papers 06/210, International Monetary Fund.


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