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Suppressed Inflation and Money Demand in Zimbabwe

  • Sònia Muñoz
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    The paper investigates the divergence between inflation and monetary expansion in Zimbabwe since late 2003. The substantial decline in velocity and increasing levels of real money balances during 2004 are at odds with a record of inflation closely tracking the growth rates of monetary aggregates in the past. Possible explanations for the divergence include an unstable demand for money, a sudden shift in the underlying demand for real balances due to a sharp change in an explanatory variable, and a structural break or aberration in a normally stable money demand relation reflecting some unexplained factor such as repressed inflation (given administered prices) or measurement errors in the consumer price index. The results of the study point to the last possibility as the most likely explanation.

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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18743
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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/15.

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    Length: 20
    Date of creation: 01 Jan 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/15
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    1. McKinnon, Ronald I, 1982. "Currency Substitution and Instability in the World Dollar Standard," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 320-33, June.
    2. Jenkins, Carolyn, 1999. "Money Demand and Stabilisation in Zimbabwe," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(3), pages 386-421, October.
    3. Arto Kovanen, 2004. "Zimbabwe; A Quest for a Nominal Anchor," IMF Working Papers 04/130, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Bennett, John, 1991. "Repressed inflation, queuing and the resale of goods in a centrally planned economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 49-60, January.
    5. Jeroen J. M. Kremers & Timothy D. Lane, 1990. "Economic and Monetary Integration and the Aggregate Demand for Money in the EMS," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(4), pages 777-805, December.
    6. Portes, Richard & Winter, David, 1978. "The Demand for Money and for Consumption Goods in Centrally Planned Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 8-18, February.
    7. Kamin, Steven B. & Ericsson, Neil R., 2003. "Dollarization in post-hyperinflationary Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 185-211, April.
    8. Weitzman, Martin L, 1991. "Price Distortion and Shortage Deformation, or What Happened to the Soap?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 401-14, June.
    9. McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles S., 1992. "Cointegration tests of a long-run relation between money demand and the effective exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 107-114, February.
    10. Feltenstein, Andrew & Ha, Jiming, 1991. "Measurement of repressed inflation in China : The lack of coordination between monetary policy and price controls," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 279-294, October.
    11. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1974. "Suppressed Inflation and the Supply Multiplier," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 87-104, January.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    13. Muellbauer, John & Portes, Richard, 1978. "Macroeconomic Models with Quantity Rationing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 788-821, December.
    14. Claus Brand & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2002. "Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth," Occasional Paper Series 03, European Central Bank.
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