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Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey

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  • Jorge A Chan-Lau

Abstract

This survey reviews a number of different fundamentals-based models for estimating default probabilities for firms and/or industries, and illustrates them with real applications by practitioners and policy making institutions. The models are especially useful when the firms analyzed do not have publicly traded securities or secondary market prices are unreliable because of low liquidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey," IMF Working Papers 06/149, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/149
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo Maino & Kalin I Tintchev, 2012. "From Stress to Costress; Stress Testing Interconnected Banking Systems," IMF Working Papers 12/53, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Per Asberg Sommar & Hovick Shahnazarian, 2009. "Interdependencies between Expected Default Frequency and the Macro Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 83-110, September.
    3. Åsberg Sommar, Per & Shahnazarian, Hovick, 2008. "Macroeconomic Impact on Expected Default Frequency," Working Paper Series 219, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Dietske Simons & Ferdinand Rolwes, 2009. "Macroeconomic efault Modeling and Stress Testing," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 177-204, September.
    5. Nguenang, Christian & Kamgna, Sévérin yves & Tinang, Nzeusseu Jules, 2010. "Une approche Macroprudentielle du risque systémique en zone CEMAC [A Macro-prudential approach of systemic risk in CEMAC zone]," MPRA Paper 25632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Daniel Oda, 2013. "Introducing Liquidity Risk in the Contingent-Claim Analysis for the Banks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 681, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Dale F. Gray & Carlos J. García & Leonardo Luna & Jorge E. Restrepo, 2011. "Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models: Application to Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 6, pages 159-197, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Antonella Foglia, 2009. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Survey of Authorities' Aproaches," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 9-45, September.
    9. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hainz, Christa, 2010. "Default rates in the loan market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 133-147, June.
    10. Andreas Sachs, 2013. "Governance Structures in Europe. WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 2," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47023, August.
    11. Sara Maccaferri & Jessica Cariboni & Wim Schoutens, 2013. "Levy Processes and the Financial Crisis: Can We Design a More Effective Deposit Protection?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
    12. Céline Gauthier & Zhongfang He & Moez Souissi, 2010. "Understanding Systemic Risk: The Trade-Offs between Capital, Short-Term Funding and Liquid Asset Holdings," Staff Working Papers 10-29, Bank of Canada.
    13. Cristina Maria Triandafil & Petre Brezeanu, 2009. "Exploring the Link between Idiosyncratic and Fundamental Indicators. Evidence on CEE Corporate Segment," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 1(1), pages 027-034, December.
    14. Pesola, Jarmo, 2007. "Financial fragility, macroeconomic shocks and banks' loan losses : evidence from Europe," Research Discussion Papers 15/2007, Bank of Finland.
    15. Miroslav Misina & David Tessier, 2008. "Non-Linearities, Model Uncertainty, and Macro Stress Testing," Staff Working Papers 08-30, Bank of Canada.
    16. Yurchenko, Yurii, 2019. "The impact of macroeconomic factors on collateral value within the framework of expected credit loss calculation," MPRA Paper 97135, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bas van Aarle, 2013. "Surveillance and Control of Fiscal Consolidation on a Supranational Level. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 46," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47021, August.

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