Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Botswana
Botswana's successive currency devaluations and recent move from a fixed to a crawling peg exchange rate regime raise the question of whether the exchange rate might be misaligned with economic fundamentals. This paper, applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, analyzes the behavior of the real exchange rate for the period 1985-2004. It finds that the pula was undervalued in the later 1980s but overvalued in recent years. Some policy lessons from experiences in other countries with crawling peg arrangements are therefore considered in the context of Botswana.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
- Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985.
"Exchange Rates and Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrea Bubula & Inci Ã–tker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 03/223, International Monetary Fund.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Barry J. Eichengreen & Inci Ã–tker & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Hugh Bredenkamp & Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Exit Strategies: Policy Options for Countries Seeking Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
- Peter B. Clark & Steven A. Symansky & Tamim Bayoumi & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 94/17, International Monetary Fund.
- Etienne B. Yehoue & Gilles J. DufrÃ©not, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/164, International Monetary Fund.
- Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Aasim M. Husain, 2004.
"Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes,"
IMF Occasional Papers
229, International Monetary Fund.
- Aasim M. Husain & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/243, International Monetary Fund.
- Rodney Ramcharan, 2005. "Cataclysms and Currencies: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Real Shocks?," IMF Working Papers 05/85, International Monetary Fund.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 1998.
"On the Japanese Yen-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 75-102, March.
- MacDonald, Ronald, 1997. "On the Japanese Yen-US Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials," CEPR Discussion Papers 1639, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
- Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995.
"Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth,"
517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
- Wickens, Michael R., 1996. "Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 255-271, October.
- Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.