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Nonlinearity in Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity; An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle

  • Giorgio Valente
  • H. L. Leon
  • Lucio Sarno

We provide empirical evidence that deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transaction costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less indicative of major market inefficiencies than previously thought. Monte Carlo experiments allow us to reconcile these results with the large empirical literature on the forward bias puzzle since we show that, if the true process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional spot-forward regressions would generate the anomalies documented in previous research.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/136.

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Length: 44
Date of creation: 01 May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/136
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