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The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries; The Case of Thailand

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  • Ivan Tchakarov
  • Selim Elekdag

Abstract

Emerging market countries have enjoyed an exceptionally favorable economic environment throughout 2004, 2005, and early 2006. In particular, accommodative U.S. monetary policy in recent years has helped create an environment of low interest rates in international capital markets. However, if world interest rates were to take a sudden upward course, this would lead to less hospitable financing conditions for emerging market countries. The purpose of this paper is to measure the effects of world interest rate shocks on real activity in Thailand. The analysis incorporates balance sheet related credit market frictions into the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) and finds that Thailand would best minimize the adverse effects of rising world interest rates if it were to follow a flexible exchange rate regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Tchakarov & Selim Elekdag, 2006. "The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries; The Case of Thailand," IMF Working Papers 06/110, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Selim Elekdag & Alejandro Justiniano & Ivan Tchakarov, 2006. "An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1-2.
    2. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 295-330, March.
    3. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    4. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
    7. Elekdag, Selim & Tchakarov, Ivan, 2007. "Balance sheets, exchange rate policy, and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3986-4015, December.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    9. Tamim Bayoumi & Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Philippe D Karam & Alessandro Rebucci & Jaewoo Lee & Benjamin L Hunt & Ivan Tchakarov, 2004. "GEM; A New International Macroeconomic Model," IMF Occasional Papers 239, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
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    Cited by:

    1. Taiyo Yoshimi, 2014. "Lending Rate Spread Shock and Monetary Policy Arrangements: A Small Open Economy Model for ASEAN Countries," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 19-39, March.

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