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A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing Tool; A Multifactor Nth-to-Default CDS Basket

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  • Renzo G Avesani
  • Jing Li
  • Antonio Garcia Pascual

Abstract

This paper generalizes a market-based indicator for financial sector surveillance using a multifactor latent structure in the determination of the default probabilities of an nth-todefault credit default swap (CDS) basket of large complex financial institutions (LCFIs). To estimate the multifactor latent structure, we link the market risk (the covariance of the LCFIs' equity) to credit risk (the default probability of the CDS basket) in a coherent manner. In addition, to analyze the response of the probabilities of default to changing macroeconomic conditions, we run a stress test by generating shocks to the latent multifactor structure. The results unveil a rich set of default probability dynamics and help in identifying the most relevant sources of risk. We anticipate that this approach could be of value to financial supervisors and risk managers alike.

Suggested Citation

  • Renzo G Avesani & Jing Li & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2006. "A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing Tool; A Multifactor Nth-to-Default CDS Basket," IMF Working Papers 06/105, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Bjorn-Jakob Treutler, 2007. "Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk," NBER Chapters,in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 419-474 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Michael S. Gibson, 2004. "Understanding the risk of synthetic CDOs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    6. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    7. Christian Hawkesby & Ian W Marsh & Ibrahim Stevens, 2005. "Comovements in the prices of securities issued by large complex financial institutions," Bank of England working papers 256, Bank of England.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Philipp Matros & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2013. "The Multivariate Option iPoD Framework - Assessing Systemic Financial Risk," Working Papers 143, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    2. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Zhu, Min, 2014. "How does competition affect bank systemic risk?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-26.
    3. Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Minjoo Kim & Yang Zhao, 2015. "Correlated Defaults of UK Banks: Dynamics and Asymmetries," Working Papers 2015_24, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Toni Gravelle & Fuchun Li, 2011. "Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions: An Extreme Value Theory Approach," Staff Working Papers 11-19, Bank of Canada.
    5. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2012. "Systemic Risk Contributions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 55-83, October.
      • Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2011. "Systemic risk contributions," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 36-43 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 2014. "Has the global banking system become more fragile over time?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 202-213.
    7. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    8. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Hochman, Gal & Fedets, Iryna, 2016. "Understanding energy efficiency barriers in Ukraine: Insights from a survey of commercial and industrial firms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 203-211.
    9. Radev, Deyan, 2014. "Assessing systemic fragility: A probabilistic perspective," SAFE Working Paper Series 70, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    10. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 193-205.
    11. Renata Karkowska, 2013. "Instability In The Cee Banking System. Evidence From The Recent Financial Crisis," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 5(4), pages 535-547, December.
    12. Wong, Alfred Y-T. & Fong, Tom Pak Wing, 2011. "Analysing interconnectivity among economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 432-442.
    13. Sangwon Suh & Inwon Jang & Misun Ahn, 2013. "A Simple Method For Measuring Systemic Risk Using Credit Default Swap Market Data," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 75-100, December.
    14. Martin CIHAK, 2007. "Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 5-26, March.
    15. Renzo G Avesani & Elina Ribakova & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2007. "The Use of Mortgage Covered Bonds," IMF Working Papers 07/20, International Monetary Fund.
    16. repec:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:4:p:633-656 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Armen Hovakimian & Edward J. Kane & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Tracking Variation in Systemic Risk at US Banks During 1974-2013," NBER Working Papers 18043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. repec:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:22-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Karkowska, Renata, 2014. "Is the Central and Eastern European banking systems stable? Evidence from the recent financial crisis," MPRA Paper 58803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Patro, Dilip K. & Qi, Min & Sun, Xian, 2013. "A simple indicator of systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 105-116.
    21. Andre Lucas & Bernd Schwaab & Xin Zhang, 2013. "Measuring Credit Risk in a Large Banking System: Econometric Modeling and Empirics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-063/IV/DSF56, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Oct 2014.
    22. Hsu, S. & Li, J. & Qin, Y., 2013. "Shadow Banking and Systemic Risk in Europe and China," CITYPERC Working Paper Series 2013-02, Department of International Politics, City University London.
    23. Collins, Sean & Gallagher, Emily, 2016. "Assessing the credit risk of money market funds during the eurozone crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 150-165.

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