A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing Tool; A Multifactor Nth-to-Default CDS Basket
This paper generalizes a market-based indicator for financial sector surveillance using a multifactor latent structure in the determination of the default probabilities of an nth-todefault credit default swap (CDS) basket of large complex financial institutions (LCFIs). To estimate the multifactor latent structure, we link the market risk (the covariance of the LCFIs' equity) to credit risk (the default probability of the CDS basket) in a coherent manner. In addition, to analyze the response of the probabilities of default to changing macroeconomic conditions, we run a stress test by generating shocks to the latent multifactor structure. The results unveil a rich set of default probability dynamics and help in identifying the most relevant sources of risk. We anticipate that this approach could be of value to financial supervisors and risk managers alike.
|Date of creation:||01 Apr 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Antje Berndt & Rohan Douglas & Darrell Duffie & Mark Ferguson & David Schranz, 2005.
"Measuring default risk premia from default swap rates and EDFs,"
BIS Working Papers
173, Bank for International Settlements.
- Antje Berndt & Rohan Douglas & Darrell Duffie & Mark Ferguson, "undated". "Measuring Default Risk Premia from Default Swap Rates and EDFs," GSIA Working Papers 2006-E31, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006.
"Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
- Reint Gropp & Jukka M. Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Working Paper Series 0150, European Central Bank.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Bjorn-Jakob Treutler, 2007.
"Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk,"
in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 419-474
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler, 2005. "Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk," NBER Working Papers 11493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler, 2005. "Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 1548, CESifo Group Munich.
- Michael S. Gibson, 2004. "Understanding the risk of synthetic CDOs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
- Elsinger, Helmut & Lehar, Alfred & Summer, Martin, 2005.
"Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment,"
817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
- Christian Hawkesby & Ian W Marsh & Ibrahim Stevens, 2005. "Comovements in the prices of securities issued by large complex financial institutions," Bank of England working papers 256, Bank of England.
- Renzo G Avesani, 2005. "FIRST; A Market-Based Approach to Evaluate Financial System Risk and Stability," IMF Working Papers 05/232, International Monetary Fund.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.