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Gdp Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico

  • Ebrima Faal
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    This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents medium-term paths for GDP based on alternative assumptions for productivity growth rates. The results indicate that the most important factor underlying the slowdown in output growth was a decline in trend total factor productivity growth. Economic policy reforms and the introduction of NAFTA may have raised trend productivity growth in recent years. Further increases in productivity growth would appear necessary, however, to raise medium-term growth.

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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18219
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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/93.

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    Length: 30
    Date of creation: 01 May 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/93
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    1. Eduardo Lora, 1997. "A Decade of Structural Reforms in Latin America: What Has Been Reformed and How to Measure It," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6428, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
    4. María Carkovic & Ross Levine, 2002. "Finance and Growth: New Evidence and Policy Analyses for Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 11, pages 343-376 Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    6. Eduardo Lora, 2001. "Structural reforms in Latin America: What has been reformed and how to measure it?," Research Department Publications 4287, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    7. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    8. Easterly, William & Loayza, Norman & Montiel, Peter, 1997. "Has Latin America's post-reform growth been disappointing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 287-311, November.
    9. Morley, James C., 2002. "A state-space approach to calculating the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 123-127, March.
    10. Chang-Jin Kim & Christian J. Murray, 2002. "Permanent and transitory components of recessions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183.
    11. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    12. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
    13. Loayza, Norman & Palacios, Luisa, 1997. "Economic reform and progress in Latin America and the Caribbean," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1829, The World Bank.
    14. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
    15. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher M. Towe & Guy Meredith, 2004. "How Has Nafta Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 04/59, International Monetary Fund.
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