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Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century

  • Peter S. Heller
  • David Hauner

A number of uncertainties about long-term expenditure commitments in industrial countries are examined: (i) the assumptions underlying the projections, (ii) the potential to further reduce non-age-related expenditures, (iii) the implicitly assumed absence of "shocks," and (iv) the potential for raising revenue. This paper concludes that (i) there is scope, but within narrow limits, to reduce non-age-related expenditures; (ii) fiscal policy frameworks tend to understate risks; and (iii) prevailing tax rates leave little room for increasing taxation in the countries facing the strongest aging pressures. In sum, governments will have to adopt a much more ambitious fiscal policy stance to cope with aging populations.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/91.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/91
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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. David Hauner, 2007. "Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," International Advances in Economic Research, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(3), pages 347-364, August.
  2. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521662918 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. repec:nsr:niesrd:250 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Martin Mühleisen & Kornélia Krajnyák & Stephan Danninger & David Hauner & Bennett Sutton, 2005. "How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?," IMF Working Papers 05/66, International Monetary Fund.
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