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Cataclysms and Currencies; Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Real Shocks?


  • Rodney Ramcharan


Does the choice of exchange rate regime affect the way an economy's adjustment to real shocks? Exploiting the randomness of natural shocks, this paper assesses empirically the often contrasting answers found in the theoretical literature. The evidence supports key themes in this literature, and points to an important tradeoff between regimes. First, adverse natural shocks are associated with both higher investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) only in developing countries with fixed rate regimes. Second, over a 24-month horizon, growth rebounds earlier in flexible rate regimes. Third, in the long run, more adverse shocks are associated with higher growth and investment only in predominantly fixed regimes. Thus, while claims of faster adjustment to real shocks under flexible rate arrangements have merit, so does the idea that exchange rate variability can impede investment. And the benefits from faster adjustment may come at the cost of foregoing the long run productivity benefits embodied in the larger investment response in fixed rate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodney Ramcharan, 2005. "Cataclysms and Currencies; Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Real Shocks?," IMF Working Papers 05/85, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/85

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guillermo Vuletin, 2013. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Fiscal Discipline: The Role Of Capital Controls," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 2096-2109, October.
    2. Atsushi Iimi, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment; An Application of the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Botswana," IMF Working Papers 06/140, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
    4. Thierry Tressel & Alessandro Prati, 2006. "Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease; Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 06/145, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Nicole Laframboise & Boileau Loko, 2012. "Natural Disasters; Mitigating Impact, Managing Risks," IMF Working Papers 12/245, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item


    Foreign exchange; Investment; Exchange rate; shocks; exchange rate regime; per capita income; exchange rate regimes; gross capital formation; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance;

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