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Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending; Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?

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  • Woon Gyu Choi
  • Michael B. Devereux

Abstract

This paper empirically explores how fiscal policy (represented by increases in government spending) has asymmetric effects on economic activity at different levels of real interest rates. It suggests that the effect of fiscal policy depends on the level of real rates, since the Ricardian effect is smaller at lower financing costs of fiscal policy. Using threshold regression models on U.S. data, the paper provides new evidence that expansionary government spending is more conducive to short-run growth when real rates are low. It also finds asymmetric effects on interest rates and inflation, and threshold effects associated with substitution between financing methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Woon Gyu Choi & Michael B. Devereux, 2005. "Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending; Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?," IMF Working Papers 05/7, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kameda, Keigo, 2014. "What causes changes in the effects of fiscal policy? A case study of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 14-31.
    2. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2008. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 345-391 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Andreas G. Georgantopoulos & Anastasios D. Tsamis, 2012. "The Interrelationship between Money Supply, Prices and Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Causality Analysis for the Case of Cyprus," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 5(3), pages 115-128, December.
    4. Woon Gyu Choi, 2007. "Measuring Interest Rates as Determined by Thrift and Productivity," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 167-195, May.
    5. Daniel Choi & Mark Holmes, 2014. "Budget deficits and real interest rates: a regime-switching reflection on Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 71-83, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real interest rates; Government spending; Fiscal policy; United States; Ricardian equivalence; regime switching; threshold vector autoregression; inflation; real rates; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Model Construction and Estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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