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Exits From Heavily Managed Exchange Rate Regimes

  • Enrica Detragiache
  • Eisuke Okada
  • Ashoka Mody

A widely held nostrum is that countries should exit heavily managed exchange rate regimes when the going is good, rather than when the exchange rate is under pressure to depreciate. Have countries followed this advice in practice? And, if so, how good has the going been? We find that in the past 25 years or so, almost all exits to more flexible regimes were followed by a depreciation of the exchange rate, and that exits were about evenly divided between disorderly and orderly cases. A logit econometric model, indicates that the general circumstances of orderly and disorderly exits have been broadly similar: an overvalued real exchange rate, falling reserves, a difficult fiscal position, and high world interest rates. Wellestablished pegs were less likely to end.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/39.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/39
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  1. Pierre-Richard Agenor, 2004. "Orderly exits from adjustable pegs and exchange rate bands," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 83-108.
  2. Michael W. Klein & Nancy P. Marion, 1994. "Explaining the Duration of Exchange-Rate Pegs," NBER Working Papers 4651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Asici, Ahmet & Wyplosz, Charles, 2003. "The Art of Gracefully Exiting a Peg," MPRA Paper 4432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Inci Ötker & Rupa Duttagupta, 2003. "Exits From Pegged Regimes; An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 03/147, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Fernandez, Raquel & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1146-55, December.
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