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A Simultaneous Equations Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets

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  • Noureddine Krichene

Abstract

A model for world crude oil and natural gas markets is estimated. It confirms low price and high income elasticities of demand for both crude oil and natural gas, which explains the market power of oil producers and price volatility following shocks. The paper establishes a relationship between oil prices, changes in the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rates, thereby identifying demand shocks arising from monetary policy. Both interest rates and the NEER are shown to influence crude prices inversely. The results imply that crude oil prices should be included in the policy rule equation of an inflation targeting model.

Suggested Citation

  • Noureddine Krichene, 2005. "A Simultaneous Equations Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets," IMF Working Papers 05/32, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/32
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17970
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    1. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    2. Robert S. Pindyck, 1979. "The Structure of World Energy Demand," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661772, January.
    3. H. S. Houthakker & Philip K. Verleger & Dennis P. Sheehan, 1974. "Dynamic Demand Analyses for Gasoline and Residential Electricity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(2), pages 412-418.
    4. Bentzen, Jan & Engsted, Tom, 1993. "Short- and long-run elasticities in energy demand : A cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 9-16, January.
    5. Rice, Patricia & Smith, V. Kerry, 1977. "An econometric model of the petroleum industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 263-287, November.
    6. Ramsey, J B & Rasche, R & Allen, Bruce T, 1975. "An Analysis of the Private and Commercial Demand for Gasoline," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(4), pages 502-507, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:3:p:61-:d:154226 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Takumi HAIBARA & Hiroshi OHTA, 2011. "A New Proposal of Ecological Tax Reform," GSICS Working Paper Series 24, Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University.
    3. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Daubanes, Julien, 2016. "Limit pricing and the (in)effectiveness of the carbon tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 28-39.
    4. repec:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:536-547 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Desmet, Klaus & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2015. "On the spatial economic impact of global warming," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 16-37.
    6. Patricio Jaramillo & Sergio Lehmann & David Moreno., 2009. "China, Precios de Commodities y Desempeño de América Latina: Algunos Hechos Estilizados," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 46(133), pages 67-105.
    7. Lin, Fu-Lai & Chen, Yu-Fen & Yang, Sheng-Yung, 2016. "Does the value of US dollar matter with the price of oil and gold? A dynamic analysis from time–frequency space," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-71.
    8. Greene, David L. & Liu, Changzheng, 2015. "U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 126-137.
    9. Ding, Liang & Vo, Minh, 2012. "Exchange rates and oil prices: A multivariate stochastic volatility analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 15-37.
    10. Nikolay Aleksandrov & Raphael Espinoza, 2011. "Optimal Oil Extraction as a multiple Real Option," OxCarre Working Papers 064, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    11. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Daubanes, Julien, 2016. "Limit pricing and the (in)effectiveness of the carbon tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 28-39.

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