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A Simultaneous Equations Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets

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  • Noureddine Krichene

Abstract

A model for world crude oil and natural gas markets is estimated. It confirms low price and high income elasticities of demand for both crude oil and natural gas, which explains the market power of oil producers and price volatility following shocks. The paper establishes a relationship between oil prices, changes in the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rates, thereby identifying demand shocks arising from monetary policy. Both interest rates and the NEER are shown to influence crude prices inversely. The results imply that crude oil prices should be included in the policy rule equation of an inflation targeting model.

Suggested Citation

  • Noureddine Krichene, 2005. "A Simultaneous Equations Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets," IMF Working Papers 05/32, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
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    3. H. S. Houthakker & Philip K. Verleger & Dennis P. Sheehan, 1974. "Dynamic Demand Analyses for Gasoline and Residential Electricity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(2), pages 412-418.
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    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    2. Desmet, Klaus & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2015. "On the spatial economic impact of global warming," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 16-37.
    3. Sabit Bagirov & Leonid Grigoriev & Wojciech Paczynski & Vladimer Papava & Marcel Salikhov & Michael Tokmazishvili, 2009. "Energy Trade and Cooperation Between the EU and CIS Countries," CASE Network Reports 0083, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Takumi HAIBARA & Hiroshi OHTA, 2011. "A New Proposal of Ecological Tax Reform," GSICS Working Paper Series 24, Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University.
    5. Chaton, Corinne & Gasmi, Farid & Guillerminet, Marie-Laure & Oviedo, Juan Daniel, 2010. "Gas Release and Transport Capacity Investment as Instruments to Foster Competition in Gas Markets," TSE Working Papers 10-203, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Daubanes, Julien, 2016. "Limit pricing and the (in)effectiveness of the carbon tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 28-39.
    7. repec:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:536-547 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Patricio Jaramillo & Sergio Lehmann & David Moreno., 2009. "China, Precios de Commodities y Desempeño de América Latina: Algunos Hechos Estilizados," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 46(133), pages 67-105.
    9. Corinne CHATON & Farid GASMI & Marie-Laure GUILLERMINET & Juan D. OVIEDO, "undated". "Gas Release and Transport Capacity Investment as Instruments to Foster Competition in Gas Markets," EcoMod2008 23800023, EcoMod.
    10. Lin, Fu-Lai & Chen, Yu-Fen & Yang, Sheng-Yung, 2016. "Does the value of US dollar matter with the price of oil and gold? A dynamic analysis from time–frequency space," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-71.
    11. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 397-414.
    12. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Is there a Homogeneous Causality Pattern between Oil Prices and Currencies of Oil Importers and Exporters?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0431, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    13. repec:zbw:rwirep:0431 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:spr:eurasi:v:7:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40821-016-0058-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Frank Vöhringer & Timo Kuosmanen & Rob Dellink, 2005. "How to attribute market leakage to CDM projects," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(5), pages 503-516, September.
    16. Shibata, Tsubasa, 2016. "Modeling for the world crude oil and natural gas markets," IDE Discussion Papers 584, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    17. Greene, David L. & Liu, Changzheng, 2015. "U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 126-137.
    18. Wu, Chih-Chiang & Chung, Huimin & Chang, Yu-Hsien, 2012. "The economic value of co-movement between oil price and exchange rate using copula-based GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 270-282.
    19. Nicolas Merener, 2016. "Concentrated Production and Conditional Heavy Tails in Commodity Returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 46-65, January.
    20. Ding, Liang & Vo, Minh, 2012. "Exchange rates and oil prices: A multivariate stochastic volatility analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 15-37.
    21. Nikolay Aleksandrov & Raphael Espinoza, 2011. "Optimal Oil Extraction as a multiple Real Option," OxCarre Working Papers 064, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    22. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Daubanes, Julien, 2016. "Limit pricing and the (in)effectiveness of the carbon tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 28-39.

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