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Revenue Forecasting—How is it done? Results from a Survey of Low-Income Countries

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  • Annette J Kyobe
  • Stephan Danninger

Abstract

This paper takes stock of revenue forecasting practices in low-income countries, and provides a comprehensive and condensed account of the revenue forecasting process. Based on a new dataset on 34 low-income countries, it catalogues forecasting practices and procedures from inception until budget submission, focusing primarily on institutional aspects and processes. The paper also synthesizes three key characteristics of forecasting practices, formality, organizational simplicity, and transparency, and empirically explores their determinants. High levels of country corruption are associated with less formal and less transparent forecasts. Past IMF involvement in a country increases the formality of the process, but does not improve public access to information.

Suggested Citation

  • Annette J Kyobe & Stephan Danninger, 2005. "Revenue Forecasting—How is it done? Results from a Survey of Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/24, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/24
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17923
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mikhail Golosov & John R King, 2002. "Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 02/236, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ian Lienert & Feridoun Sarraf, 2001. "Systemic Weaknesses of Budget Management in Anglophone Africa," IMF Working Papers 01/211, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Stephan Danninger & Annette J Kyobe & M. Cangiano, 2005. "The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/2, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2015. "Political biases despite external expert participation? An empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 287-307, September.
    2. repec:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(201706)73:2_213:mffeft_2.0.tx_2-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. T. P. Koirala Ph.D., 2012. "Government Revenue Forecasting in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 24(2), pages 47-60, October.
    4. Gerencia de Riesgo Asobancaria - CIFIN, "undated". "Estimación de la Carga Financiera en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 056, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    6. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
    7. Stephan Danninger & Annette J Kyobe & M. Cangiano, 2005. "The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/2, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget preparation; Revenue forecasting; forecasting; budget document; budget management; budget coverage; Taxation; Subsidies; and Revenue: General;

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