How Tight is too Tight? a Look At Welfare Implications of Distortionary Policies in Uzbekistan
Since independence in 1991, Uzbekistan has pursued a gradual approach to the transition from planned to market economy. This approach relied heavily on trade controls, directed credit, and large public investments. A number of financial sector measures were also instituted that distorted resource allocation and increased transaction costs. As a result, while possibly preventing the contraction of output in the early 1990s, these policies led to disappointing economic outcomes and social conditions. The paper reviews the underlying distortions and presents survey-based evidence to support their existence and their detrimental impact on economic activity. Looking forward, the paper-using a representative agent framework to model existing financial sector distortions-offers some guidance regarding the likely implications of eliminating the observed distortions on key aggregate variables. It suggests that the elimination of these distortions will enhance welfare and lead to increased investment and capital stock.
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- Jeromin Zettelmeyer & GÃ¼nther Taube, 1998. "Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan; Past Performance and Future Prospects," IMF Working Papers 98/132, International Monetary Fund.
- Richard Pomfret, 2003. "Economic Performance in Central Asia Since 1991: Macro and Micro Evidence1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 442-465, December.
- Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
- Stephen Tokarick, 2006. "Does Import Protection Discourage Exports?," IMF Working Papers 06/20, International Monetary Fund.
- Katrin Elborgh-Woytek & Julian Berengaut, 2005. "Who is Still Haunted by the Specter of Communism? Explaining Relative Output Contractions Under Transition," IMF Working Papers 05/68, International Monetary Fund.
- International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan's Foreign Exchange Regime," IMF Working Papers 00/61, International Monetary Fund.
- Feenstra, Robert C, 1985. "Anticipated Devaluations, Currency Flight, and Direct Trade Controls in a Monetary Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 386-401, June.
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