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Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in an Oil-Producing Economy; The Case of Venezuela

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  • Alfredo Baldini

Abstract

This paper analyzes the fiscal policy in Venezuela during 1991-2003, by using a number of statistical approaches to analyze trends and cycles of economic output and fiscal outcomes. The business cycle features a strong dominance of short-term cyclical components-each cycle having an average duration of about two to three years. However, the cyclical volatility of non-oil sector GDP is more than two times as large as the volatility of oil sector GDP. On the fiscal side, while oil revenues are independent of the business cycle, all the other main fiscal variables exhibit strong procyclicality. In particular, fiscal procyclicality is higher during good times than bad times, which could be related to the existence of "voracity effects." The discretionary component of fiscal policy is as volatile as the component induced by the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfredo Baldini, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in an Oil-Producing Economy; The Case of Venezuela," IMF Working Papers 05/237, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/237
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fallahi, Firouz & Voia, Marcel-Cristian, 2015. "Convergence and persistence in per capita energy use among OECD countries: Revisited using confidence intervals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 246-253.
    2. Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Carneiro, Jason Thomas Guerreiro & Machado, Giovani, 2008. "Break-even price for upstream activities in Brazil: Evaluation of the opportunity cost of oil production delay in a non-mature sedimentary production region," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 589-600.
    3. Hasanov, Fakhri & Mammadov, Fuad, 2010. "The Role of the Fiscal Policy in the Development of the Non-Resource," MPRA Paper 65571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:eac:articl:08/15 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Fallahi, Firouz & Karimi, Mohammad & Voia, Marcel-Cristian, 2016. "Persistence in world energy consumption: Evidence from subsampling confidence intervals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 175-183.
    6. repec:eee:eneeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:228-239 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Delavari, Majid & Mohammadali, Hanieh & Naderi, Esmaeil & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya, 2011. "The sources of Iran's Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 46756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Omar Mendoza & David Vera, 2010. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on an Oil-exporting Economy," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 47(135), pages 3-13.
    9. Kamilya Tazhibayeva & Aasim M. Husain & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/253, International Monetary Fund.

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