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Real Exchange Rates in Growing Economies; How Strong Is the Role of the Nontradables Sector?

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  • Ken Miyajima

Abstract

This paper emphasizes the importance of total factor productivity (TFP) developments in the nontradables sector to quantitatively demonstrate that the time-honored Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis does not generally apply to episodes of economic growth. Though the Balassa- Samuelson hypothesis postulates that strong economic growth should, in general, be accompanied by a real appreciation in exchange rates, this paper does not find such systematic links. This is because some growth spurts are marked by equal TFP gains in both the tradables and nontradables sectors, and others by larger TFP gains in the nontradables sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Ken Miyajima, 2005. "Real Exchange Rates in Growing Economies; How Strong Is the Role of the Nontradables Sector?," IMF Working Papers 05/233, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/233
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arnold C. Harberger, 1989. "Applications Of Real Exchange Rate Analysis," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(2), pages 1-26, April.
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    3. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
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    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    6. Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1999. "Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia," NBER Chapters,in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues (NBER-EASE volume 7), pages 109-132 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Chinn, Menzie D, 2000. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 20-43, February.
    8. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Razzak, Weshah, 2005. "Explaining the gaps in labour productivity in some developed countries," MPRA Paper 1888, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2006.
    2. Jesús Ferreyra & Jorge Salas, 2006. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Peru: BEER Models and Confidence Band Building," Working Papers 2006-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    3. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2011. "Appreciating the Renminbi," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 265-297, February.
    4. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    5. Pavel Trunin & Dmitriy Kniazev & Ekaterina Kuduykina, 2010. "Perspective issues in the CBR`s exchange rate policy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 144P.
    6. Pericoli, Marcello & Taboga, Marco, 2012. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-65.
    7. Reza Siregar & Ramkishen Rajan, 2006. "Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2006-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    8. Jin Inhwan, 2008. "Is Japanese FDI a Substitute for or a Complement to Trade in Asia?," TERG Discussion Papers 236, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University, revised Oct 2008.
    9. Tyers, Rod & Golley, Jane, 2008. "China’s Real Exchange Rate Puzzle," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 547-574.
    10. Razzak, Weshah, 2006. "Explaining the gaps in labour productivity for some developed countries," MPRA Paper 53, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Ian Bain, 2006. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-476, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    12. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.
    13. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2007. "China’s Real Exchange Rate," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2007-479, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Foreign exchange; Productivity; Real effective exchange rates; Real exchange rates; growth accounting; nontradables sector; tfp; exchange rates;

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