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The END; A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability

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  • Jorge A Chan-Lau
  • Toni Gravelle

Abstract

This paper describes a corporate sector vulnerability indicator, the expected number of defaults (END), based on the joint occurrence of defaults among a number of firms and/or institutions. The END indicator is general enough to assess systemic risk in the corporate and financial sectors, as well as systemic sovereign risk; and is also forward looking as it is constructed using information implied by financial securities prices. Using equity prices and balance-sheet data, we calculate the END to assess systemic risk in the corporate sector in Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. We also discuss how the END systemic risk indicator overcomes some of the shortcomings of other vulnerability indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge A Chan-Lau & Toni Gravelle, 2005. "The END; A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 05/231, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/231
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    2. Arnaud Jobert & Janet Kong & Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/33, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    5. Piyabha Kongsamut & V. Haksar, 2003. "Dynamics of Corporate Performance in Thailand," IMF Working Papers 03/214, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Yoon Sook Kim, 2004. "Equity Prices, Credit Default Swaps, and Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/27, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Zhu, Min, 2014. "How does competition affect bank systemic risk?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-26.
    2. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2012. "Systemic Risk Contributions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 55-83, October.
      • Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2011. "Systemic risk contributions," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 36-43 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    4. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Zhu, Min, 2014. "How does deposit insurance affect bank risk? Evidence from the recent crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 312-321.
    5. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Keiler, Sebastian & Eder, Armin, 2013. "CDS spreads and systemic risk: A spatial econometric approach," Discussion Papers 01/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    8. Sangwon Suh & Inwon Jang & Misun Ahn, 2013. "A Simple Method For Measuring Systemic Risk Using Credit Default Swap Market Data," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 75-100, December.
    9. Daniel Oda, 2013. "Introducing Liquidity Risk in the Contingent-Claim Analysis for the Banks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 681, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Martin CIHAK, 2007. "Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 5-26, March.
    11. Dale F. Gray & Carlos J. García & Leonardo Luna & Jorge E. Restrepo, 2011. "Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models: Application to Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 6, pages 159-197 Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Kay Giesecke & Baeho Kim, 2011. "Systemic Risk: What Defaults Are Telling Us," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1387-1405, August.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Iceland; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/297, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Bernoth, Kerstin & Pick, Andreas, 2011. "Forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 807-818, April.
    15. Matros, Philipp & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2014. "The multivariate option iPoD framework: assessing systemic financial risk," Discussion Papers 20/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "On bank credit risk: systemic or bank-specific? Evidence from the US and UK," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 951, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. repec:eee:intfin:v:48:y:2017:i:c:p:135-145 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Philipp Matros & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2013. "The Multivariate Option iPoD Framework - Assessing Systemic Financial Risk," Working Papers 143, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    19. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 2014. "Has the global banking system become more fragile over time?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 202-213.
    20. Jose Giancarlo Gasha & Andre O Santos & Jorge A Chan-Lau & Carlos I. Medeiros & Marcos R Souto & Christian Capuano, 2009. "Recent Advances in Credit Risk Modeling," IMF Working Papers 09/162, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Ijaz Hussain, 2013. "Estimating Firms’ Vulnerability to Short-Term Financing Shocks: The Case of Foreign Exchange Companies in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 147-163, July-Dec.
    22. Karkowska, Renata, 2014. "Is the Central and Eastern European banking systems stable? Evidence from the recent financial crisis," MPRA Paper 58803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Andre O Santos & Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Currency Mismatches and Corporate Default Risk; Modeling, Measurement, and Surveillance Applications," IMF Working Papers 06/269, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Zhu, Min, 2012. "How does bank competition affect systemic stability ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5981, The World Bank.

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