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A Fair Exchange? Theory and Practice of Calculating Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Jaewoo Lee
  • Hamid Faruqee
  • Tamim Bayoumi

Abstract

We develop a theory-based model of equilibrium exchange rates incorporating factors that have been found to matter empirically. The model provides insights into how variables should be measured and what are appropriate cross-country restrictions. We estimate this model using a panel of 12 industrial countries. The model fits the data relatively well, implying relatively fast adjustment to equilibrium and outperforming a random walk at longer horizons. Furthermore, we find that the rate of adjustment depends on the distance from equilibrium, suggesting that part of the explanation for slow adjustment is inaccurate measures of equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaewoo Lee & Hamid Faruqee & Tamim Bayoumi, 2005. "A Fair Exchange? Theory and Practice of Calculating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 05/229, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/229
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hsiao Chink Tang, 2014. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra-Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 335-352, February.
    2. Zhang, Zhibai & Chen, Langnan, 2014. "A new assessment of the Chinese RMB exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 113-122.
    3. Thorbecke, Willem, 2008. "The effect of exchange rate volatility on fragmentation in East Asia: Evidence from the electronics industry," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 535-544, December.
    4. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates," FIW Working Paper series 065, FIW.
    5. Montiel, Peter J., 2007. "Equilibrium real exchange rates, misalignment and competitiveness in the Southern Cone," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 62, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina lahrèche-Révil & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Is Asia Responsible For Exchange Rate Misalignments Within The G20?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 46-61, February.
    7. Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2011. "Intra-Asia Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra-Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 90, Asian Development Bank.
    8. Tamim Bayoumi & Martin Mühleisen, 2006. "Energy, the Exchange Rate, and the Economy; Macroeconomic Benefits of Canada’s Oil Sands Production," IMF Working Papers 06/70, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Economic models; Foreign exchange; imperfect substitutability; nonlinear convergence; exchange rate; equation; statistics; cointegration; Open Economy Macroeconomics;

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