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Pricing Growth-Indexed Bonds


  • Paolo Mauro
  • Marcos Chamon


Growth-indexed bonds have been suggested as a way of reducing the procyclicality of emerging-market countries' fiscal policies and the likelihood of costly debt crises. Investor attitude surveys suggest that pricing difficulties are seen as a considerable obstacle. In an effort to reduce such concerns, this article presents a simple way of pricing growth-indexed bonds. As a pleasant by-product, the analysis tracks the quantitative implications of an increase in the share of growth-indexed bonds in total debt, measuring the ensuing decline in the probability of default and the reduction in the spreads at which standard bonds can be issued.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Mauro & Marcos Chamon, 2005. "Pricing Growth-Indexed Bonds," IMF Working Papers 05/216, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/216

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
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    9. Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2009. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 133-173, July-Dece.
    11. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity; Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld and Giovanni Peri., 1998. "Regional Nonadjustment and Fiscal Policy: Lessons for EMU," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-096, University of California at Berkeley.
    13. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    14. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Eduardo Borensztein & Paolo Mauro, 2004. "The case for GDP-indexed bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(38), pages 165-216, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca A Ricci & Marcos Chamon & Alejo Costa, 2008. "Is There a Novelty Premium on New Financial Instruments? The Argentine Experience with GDP-Indexed Warrants," IMF Working Papers 08/109, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Martin Brooke & Rhys R. Mendes & Alex Pienkowski & Eric Santor, 2013. "Sovereign Default and State-Contingent Debt," Discussion Papers 13-3, Bank of Canada.
    3. Diaw, Abdou & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Lahsasna, Ahcene, 2014. "Public Sector Funding and Debt Management: A Case for GDP-Linked Ṣukūk," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 22, pages 185-216.
    4. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2012. "On the benefits of GDP-indexed government debt: lessons from a model of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 2Q, pages 139-157.
    5. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2016. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1383-1422.
    6. Brooke, Martin & Pienkowski, Alex & Mendes, Rhys & Santor, Eric, 2013. "Financial Stability Paper No 27: Sovereign Default and State-Contingent Debt," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 27, Bank of England.
    7. Ken Miyajima, 2006. "How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants; Price and Repayment Capacity," IMF Working Papers 06/85, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Achim Wambach & Ines Läufer, 2015. "Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion: Lernen aus der Krise," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 02/2015, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    9. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Sara E. Bennett & Mahendhiran Nair & John H. Hall, 2016. "Bond Market Development, Economic Growth and Other Macroeconomic Determinants: Panel VAR Evidence," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 175-201, June.
    10. Diaw, Abdou & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Lahsasna, Ahcene, 2011. "Public Sector Funding and Debt Management: A Case for GDP-Linked Sukuk," MPRA Paper 46008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    11. repec:fip:fedreq:y:2012:i:2q:p:139-157:n:vol.98no.2 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Andre Faria, 2006. "Growth-Indexed Bonds in Emerging Markets: a Quantitative Approach," 2006 Meeting Papers 847, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Barr, David & Bush, Oliver & Pienkowski, Alex, 2014. "GDP-linked bonds and sovereign default," Bank of England working papers 484, Bank of England.
    14. World Bank, 2008. "Country Insurance : Reducing Systemic Vulnerabilities in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8010, The World Bank.


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