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The Domestic and Global Impact of Japan's Policies for Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Nicoletta Batini
  • Alessandro Rebucci
  • Papa M N'Diaye

Abstract

Japan is facing a sizable fiscal imbalance against a backdrop of weak trend growth and growing external imbalances in the world economy. This paper examines the possible impact of fiscal adjustment and productivity-enhancing structural reforms on the Japanese and world economies. Simulation results indicate that these could reduce substantially Japan's fiscal imbalance with only limited spillovers to the rest of the world. Specifically, faster productivity growth would help lower Japan's debt and limit the tendency of fiscal consolidation to increase the external surplus. In fact, very rapid productivity growth could potentially lead to a decline in Japan's external surplus and thereby have a positive effect on global imbalance. The modest extent of the spillovers to the rest of the world reflect the small size of the shocks and the diminished size of Japan in the world economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Rebucci & Papa M N'Diaye, 2005. "The Domestic and Global Impact of Japan's Policies for Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/209, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/209
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2007. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 377-456 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ghironi, Fabio & Iscan, Talan B. & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2008. "Net foreign asset positions and consumption dynamics in the international economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1337-1359, December.
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    4. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Bart Turtelboom & Peter Isard & Eswar S Prasad, 1998. "Multimod Mark III; The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 67-102 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo & Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank.
    8. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Manmohan S. Kumar & Dennis P Botman, 2007. "Global Aging Pressures; Impact of Fiscal Adjustment, Policy Cooperation, and Structural Reforms," IMF Working Papers 07/196, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Forni, L. & Gerali, A. & Pisani, M., 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Greater Competition In The Service Sector: The Case Of Italy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(05), pages 677-708, November.
    3. Dennis Botman & Philippe Karam & Douglas Laxton, 2008. "Les modèles DSGE au FMI : applications et développements récents," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 175-198.
    4. Alessandro Rebucci & Nicoletta Batini & Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani, 2009. "Global Imbalances; The Role of Non-Tradabletotal Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/63, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Dennis P Botman & Stephan Danninger, 2007. "Tax Reform and Debt Sustainability in Germany; An Assessment Using the Global Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 07/46, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Dennis P Botman & David Rose & Douglas Laxton & Philippe D Karam, 2007. "DSGE Modeling at the Fund; Applications and Further Developments," IMF Working Papers 07/200, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Malhar S Nabar, 2011. "Targets, Interest Rates, and Household Saving in Urban China," IMF Working Papers 11/223, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Laxton, Douglas & N'Diaye, Papa & Pesenti, Paolo, 2006. "Deflationary shocks and monetary rules: An open-economy scenario analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 665-698, December.
    9. Dora M Iakova & Dennis P Botman, 2007. "Policy Challenges of Population Aging in Ireland," IMF Working Papers 07/247, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Annabelle Mourougane & Lukas Vogel, 2009. "Speed of Adjustment to Selected Labour Market and Tax Reforms," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(4), pages 500-519, December.
    11. Botman, Dennis & Edison, Hali & N'Diaye, Papa, 2009. "Strategies for fiscal consolidation in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 151-160, March.
    12. Annabelle Mourougane & Lukas Vogel, 2008. "Short-Term Distributional Effects of Structural Reforms: Selected Simulations in a DGSE Framework," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 648, OECD Publishing.
    13. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Alessandro Rebucci, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Fiscal Stimulus," Research Department Publications 4689, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

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