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Macroeconomic Effects of Social Security and Tax Reform in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Tamim Bayoumi
  • Dennis P Botman
  • Manmohan S. Kumar

Abstract

We use the IMF's Global Fiscal Model to evaluate recent proposals to reform social security and the tax system in the United States. Introducing personal retirement accounts is unlikely to yield significant macroeconomic benefits unless it spurs additional fiscal consolidation to prevent a large increase in government debt. Similar benefits are obtained if the social security surplus is placed in a lockbox while maintaining the same debt target. Lowering the taxation of investment income is beneficial, but only if the reform is revenue neutral. Debtneutral social security and tax reform in the United States has large positive effects on the rest of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamim Bayoumi & Dennis P Botman & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2005. "Macroeconomic Effects of Social Security and Tax Reform in the United States," IMF Working Papers 05/208, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/208
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18651
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher J. Gust, 2005. "Expansionary fiscal shocks and the trade deficit," International Finance Discussion Papers 825, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Brooks,Robin & Razin,Assaf (ed.), 2005. "Social Security Reform," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844956.
    3. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
    4. Tamim Bayoumi & Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Philippe D Karam & Alessandro Rebucci & Jaewoo Lee & Benjamin L Hunt & Ivan Tchakarov, 2004. "GEM; A New International Macroeconomic Model," IMF Occasional Papers 239, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Botman & Philippe Karam & Douglas Laxton, 2008. "Les modèles DSGE au FMI : applications et développements récents," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 175-198.
    2. Dennis P Botman & David Rose & Douglas Laxton & Philippe D Karam, 2007. "DSGE Modeling at the Fund; Applications and Further Developments," IMF Working Papers 07/200, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Botman, Dennis & Edison, Hali & N'Diaye, Papa, 2009. "Strategies for fiscal consolidation in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 151-160, March.

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