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Is Russia Still Driving Regional Economic Growth?

Author

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  • Marco Pani
  • Etibar Jafarov
  • Clinton R. Shiells

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the linkages between economic growth in Russia and growth in other countries in the region have weakened over time, particularly following the 1998 Russian crisis. It specifies an econometric model that includes standard growth determinants as well as Russian economic growth, and which allows for the effects of Russian growth to vary over time. The paper finds that Russian growth was indeed a significant determinant of regional economic growth prior to the Russian crisis, but that this link weakened significantly thereafter.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Pani & Etibar Jafarov & Clinton R. Shiells, 2005. "Is Russia Still Driving Regional Economic Growth?," IMF Working Papers 05/192, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/192
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
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    4. Vivek B. Arora & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2005. "The Implications of South African Economic Growth for the Rest of Africa," IMF Working Papers 05/58, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
    6. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    7. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    8. Oleh Havrylyshyn, 2001. "Recovery and Growth in Transition: A Decade of Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 1-4.
    9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    10. Elena Loukoianova & Anna Unigovskaya, 2004. "Analysis of Recent Growth in Low-Income CIS Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/151, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Michalopoulos, Constantine, 1999. "The integration of transition economies into the world trading system," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2182, The World Bank.
    12. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    13. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kingsley I. Obiora, 2010. "Do countries catch cold when trading partners sneeze? Evidence from spillovers in the Baltics," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 143-160.
    2. Garbis Iradian, 2007. "Rapid Growth in the CIS; Panel Regression Approach," IMF Working Papers 07/170, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Baltics; Economic growth; Economic integration; Russian Federation; Russia; CIS; real gdp; gdp growth; correlation; growth rates; Economic Growth of Open Economies; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General;

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