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Is Russia Still Driving Regional Economic Growth?

  • Marco Pani
  • Etibar Jafarov
  • Clinton R. Shiells
Registered author(s):

    This paper investigates whether the linkages between economic growth in Russia and growth in other countries in the region have weakened over time, particularly following the 1998 Russian crisis. It specifies an econometric model that includes standard growth determinants as well as Russian economic growth, and which allows for the effects of Russian growth to vary over time. The paper finds that Russian growth was indeed a significant determinant of regional economic growth prior to the Russian crisis, but that this link weakened significantly thereafter.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/192.

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    Length: 42
    Date of creation: 01 Oct 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/192
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    1. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries; Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ratna Sahay & Stanley Fischer & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1998. "From Transition to Market; Evidence and Growth Prospects," IMF Working Papers 98/52, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Hausman, Jerry A. & Taylor, William E., 1981. "Panel data and unobservable individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-155, May.
    5. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    6. Michalopoulos, Constantine, 1999. "The integration of transition economies into the world trading system," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2182, The World Bank.
    7. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    8. Elena Loukoianova & Anna Unigovskaya, 2004. "Analysis of Recent Growth in Low-Income Cis Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/151, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Oleh Havrylyshyn, 2001. "Recovery and Growth in Transition: A Decade of Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 4.
    10. Vivek B. Arora & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2005. "The Implications of South African Economic Growth for the Rest of Africa," IMF Working Papers 05/58, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    12. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
    13. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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