IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?

Listed author(s):
  • Eswar S Prasad
  • Marco Terrones
  • Ayhan Kose

The influential work of Ramey and Ramey (1995) highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom-that output volatility and growth are negatively correlated. We reexamine this relationship in the context of globalization-a term typically used to describe the phenomenon of growing international trade and financial integration that has intensified since the mid-1980s. Using a comprehensive new data set, we document that, while the basic negative association between growth and volatility has been preserved during the 1990s, both trade and financial integration significantly weaken this negative relationship. Specifically, we find that, in a regression of growth on volatility and other controls, the estimated coefficient on the interaction between volatility and trade integration is significantly positive. We find a similar, although less significant, result for the interaction of financial integration with volatility.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17929
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/19.

as
in new window

Length: 38
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2005
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/19
Contact details of provider: Postal:
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA

Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 1999. "Capital Markets and the Instability of Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Philip R. Lane & G.M. Milesi-Ferretti, 2003. "International Financial Integration," Trinity Economics Papers 20031, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June.
  5. Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "Asymmetric Cycles," NBER Working Papers 10573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Jeanne, Olivier, 2003. "The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 3902, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Cevdet Denizer & Murat F. Lyigun & Ann L. Owen, 2000. "Finance and macroeconomic volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 670, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. K Blackburn & A Pelloni, 2002. "Growth, Cycles and Stabilisation Policy," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0216, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  9. Ross Levine & Sara Zervos, "undated". "Stock markets, banks and economic growth ," CERF Discussion Paper Series 95-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  10. Deaton, A-S & Miller, R-I, 1995. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance, and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Princeton Studies in International Economics 79, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  11. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2004. "The Positive Link Between Financial Liberalization Growth and Crises," UCLA Economics Working Papers 834, UCLA Department of Economics.
  12. Kaminsky, Graciela Laura & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2002. "Short-run pain, long-run gain : the effects of financial liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2912, The World Bank.
  13. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  14. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
  15. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2006. "How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship between Growth and Volatility?," IZA Discussion Papers 2252, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. Buch, Claudia M. & Doepke, Joerg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2005. "Financial openness and business cycle volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 744-765, September.
  17. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, "undated". "Financial Dependence and Growth," CRSP working papers 344, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  18. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
  19. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Growth Volatility and Financial Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 10560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1992. "Robustness of Macroeconomic Indicators of Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 92/111, .
  21. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
  22. Philippe Aghion & Abhijit Banerjee & Thomas Piketty, 1999. "Dualism and Macroeconomic Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1397.
  23. Richard E. Baldwin & Elena Seghezza, 1996. "Testing for Trade-Induced Investment-Led Growth," NBER Working Papers 5416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Assaf Razin & Andrew Rose, 1992. "Business Cycle Volatility and Openness: An Exploratory Cross-Section Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
  26. Fran Westermann & Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Crises and Growth: A Re-evaluation," 2004 Meeting Papers 130, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  27. Tornell, A., 1998. "Reform from Within," Papers 650, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  28. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
  29. Andrew Berg & Anne O. Krueger, 2003. "Trade, Growth, and Poverty; A Selective Survey," IMF Working Papers 03/30, .
  30. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?," Working Paper Research 53, National Bank of Belgium.
  31. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ennio Stacchetti, 2000. "Technology (and policy) shocks in models of endogenous growth," Staff Report 281, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  32. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Easterly, W & Levine, R, 1996. "Africa's Growth Tragedy : Policies and Ethnic Divisions," Papers 536, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  34. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  35. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Fundamental," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 184-188, May.
  37. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
  38. Stephen Turnovsky & Pradip Chattopadhyay, 1998. "Volatility and Growth in Developing Economies: Some Numerical Results and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0055, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  39. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  40. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
  41. Mark A. Carlson & Leonardo Hernandez, 2002. "Determinants and repercussions of the composition of capital inflows," International Finance Discussion Papers 717, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  42. L Alan Winters, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation and Economic Performance: An Overview," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 4-21, 02.
  43. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Institutions, trade, and growth : revisiting the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3004, The World Bank.
  44. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Reisen, Helmut & Soto, Marcelo, 2001. "Which Types of Capital Inflows Foster Developing-Country Growth?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, Spring.
  46. Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2004. "Missing Link; Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox," IMF Working Papers 04/51, .
  47. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  48. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson, 2004. "Institutions As The Fundamental Cause Of Long-Run Growth," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 002889, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  49. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Institutions, trade, and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 133-162, January.
  50. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Hali J. Edison & Michael W. Klein & Luca Antonio Ricci & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 1-2.
  52. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2000. "Emerging Equity Markets and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 7763, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Robert E. Baldwin, 2004. "Openness and Growth: What's the Empirical Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 499-526 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Mark S. Carlson & Leonardo Hernández, 2002. "Determinants and Repercussions of the Composition of Capital Inflows," IMF Working Papers 02/86, .
  55. Henry, Peter Blair, 2000. "Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 301-334.
  56. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  57. Wacziarg, Romain & Welch, Karen Horn, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," Research Papers 1826, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  58. Ayhan Kose & Christopher M Towe & Guy M Meredith, 2004. "How Has Nafta Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 04/59, .
  59. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P, 1993. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 145-163, June.
  60. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Crises and Growth: A Re-evaluation (September 2003)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 264, UCLA Department of Economics.
  61. L.R. de Mello Jr., 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data," Studies in Economics 9615, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  62. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  63. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
  64. William Easterly & Ross Levine & David Roodman, 2003. "New Data, New doubts: A Comment on Burnside and Dollar's "Aid, Policies, and Growth" (2000)," NBER Working Papers 9846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Hali J. Edison & Ross Levine & Luca Ricci & Torsten Slok, 2002. "International Financial Integration and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M., 1991. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," RCER Working Papers 316, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  67. Martin, Philippe & Ann Rogers, Carol, 2000. "Long-term growth and short-term economic instability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 359-381, February.
  68. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  69. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
  70. Imbs, Jean, 2002. "Why the Link Between Volatility and Growth is Both Positive and Negative," CEPR Discussion Papers 3561, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  71. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 8846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2002. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  73. Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "Domestic Crony Capitalism and International Fickle Capital: Is There a Connection?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 15-45, Spring.
  74. Karras, Georgios & Song, Frank, 1996. "Sources of business-cycle volatility: An exploratory study on a sample of OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 621-637.
  75. Blackburn, Keith, 1999. "Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-Run Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 67-77, January.
  76. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Capital Mobility and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Economies Different?," NBER Working Papers 8076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  77. Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar S Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries; Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
  78. repec:rus:hseeco:72137 is not listed on IDEAS
  79. Marco Terrones & Eswar S Prasad & Ayhan Kose, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/50, .
  80. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Loayza, Norman, 2004. "Volatility and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3184, The World Bank.
  81. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-179, May.
  82. Baldwin, Richard E. & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Regional economic integration," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1597-1644 Elsevier.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)

or (Hassan Zaidi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.