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Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty; Is Africa Different?

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  • Charalambos G Tsangarides

Abstract

This paper attempts to identify robust patterns of cross-country growth behavior in the world as a whole and Africa. It employs a novel methodology that incorporates a dynamic panel estimator, and Bayesian Model Averaging to explicitly account for model uncertainty. The findings indicate that: (i) in addition to initial conditions, various economic factors such as higher investment, lower inflation, lower government consumption, better fiscal stance, improved political environment, exogenous terms-of-trade shocks, and fixed geographical factors are robustly correlated with growth; (ii) what is good for growth around the world is, in principle, also good for growth in Africa; and (iii) political and institutional variables are particularly important in explaining African growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2005. "Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty; Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 05/18, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/18
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarociński, 2010. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 222-246, October.
    2. Eduardo Ley & Mark F.J. Steel, 2009. "On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression This article was published online on 30 March 2009. An error was subsequently identified. This not," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 651-674.
    3. Bigsten, Arne, 2006. "Aid and Economic Development in Africa," Working Papers in Economics 237, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    4. Issiaka Coulibaly, 2014. "Competitiveness and growth within the CFA franc zone: Does the switch to the Euro matter?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 139, pages 1-18.
    5. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2007. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 476-493, September.
    6. Chris Papageorgiou & Winford H. Masanjala, 2006. "Initial Conditions, European Colonialism and Africa's Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2006-01, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    7. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2007. "On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4238, The World Bank.
    8. Stefan Sperlich & Yvonne Sperlich, 2012. "Growth and Convergence in South–South Integration Areas: Empirical Evidence," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 12032, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
    9. repec:cii:cepiei:2014-q3-139-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gilles Dufrenot & Valerie Mignon & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2010. "The trade-growth nexus in the developing countries: a quantile regression approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(4), pages 731-761, December.
    11. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2012. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 566-579, May.
    12. Soares, Ricardo Brito & Linhares, Fabrício Carneiro & Gonçalves, Marcos Falcão & Viana, Luiz Fernando Gonçalves, 2014. "Brazil’s Northeast Financing Constitutional Fund: Differentiated effects on municipal economic growth," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.

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