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Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims

  • Michael T. Gapen
  • Dale F. Gray
  • Cheng Hoon Lim
  • Yingbin Xiao
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    This paper develops a comprehensive new framework to measure and analyze sovereign risk. Since traditional macroeconomic vulnerability indicators and accounting-based measures do not address risk in a comprehensive and forward-looking way, the contingent claims approach is used to construct a marked-to-market balance sheet for the sovereign, and derive a set of credit-risk indicators that serve as a barometer of sovereign risk. Applications to 12 emerging market economies show the risk indicators to be robust and highly correlated with market spreads. The framework can help policymakers design risk mitigation strategies and rank policy options using a calibrated structural model unique to each economy.

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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18360
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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/155.

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    Length: 49
    Date of creation: 01 Aug 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/155
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    1. Andrea Schaechter, 2001. "Implementation of Monetary Policy and the Central Bank's Balance Sheet," IMF Working Papers 01/149, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Merton, Robert C, 1998. "Applications of Option-Pricing Theory: Twenty-Five Years Later," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 323-49, June.
    3. Jan Willem van den End & Mostafa Tabbae, 2005. "Measuring Financial Stability: Applying the MfRisk Model to the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 030, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    5. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
    6. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    7. Yingbin Xiao & Dale F. Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Michael T. Gapen, 2004. "The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis; Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer," IMF Working Papers 04/121, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Akira Ariyoshi & Andrei Kirilenko & Inci Ötker & Bernard Laurens & Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko & Karl Friedrich Habermeier, 2000. "Capital Controls: Country Experiences with Their Use and Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 190, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Brad Setser & Nouriel Roubini & Christian Keller & Mark Allen & Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/210, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Arnaud Jobert & Janet Kong & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/33, International Monetary Fund.
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