IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims


  • Michael T. Gapen
  • Dale F. Gray
  • Cheng Hoon Lim
  • Yingbin Xiao


This paper develops a comprehensive new framework to measure and analyze sovereign risk. Since traditional macroeconomic vulnerability indicators and accounting-based measures do not address risk in a comprehensive and forward-looking way, the contingent claims approach is used to construct a marked-to-market balance sheet for the sovereign, and derive a set of credit-risk indicators that serve as a barometer of sovereign risk. Applications to 12 emerging market economies show the risk indicators to be robust and highly correlated with market spreads. The framework can help policymakers design risk mitigation strategies and rank policy options using a calibrated structural model unique to each economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. Gapen & Dale F. Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Yingbin Xiao, 2005. "Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims," IMF Working Papers 05/155, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/155

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Merton, Robert C, 1998. "Applications of Option-Pricing Theory: Twenty-Five Years Later," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 323-349, June.
    2. Jan Willem van den End & Mostafa Tabbae, 2005. "Measuring Financial Stability: Applying the MfRisk Model to the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 030, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Arnaud Jobert & Janet Kong & Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/33, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Yingbin Xiao & Dale F. Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Michael T. Gapen, 2004. "The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis; Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer," IMF Working Papers 04/121, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Andrea Schaechter, 2001. "Implementation of Monetary Policy and the Central Bank's Balance Sheet," IMF Working Papers 01/149, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Akira Ariyoshi & Andrei A Kirilenko & Inci Ötker & Bernard J Laurens & Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Karl F Habermeier, 2000. "Capital Controls; Country Experiences with Their Use and Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 190, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Brad Setser & Nouriel Roubini & Christian Keller & Mark Allen & Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/210, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    10. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2009. "The Costs of Sovereign Default," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(4), pages 683-741, November.
    2. Faezeh Raei & Selim Cakir, 2007. "Sukuk vs. Eurobonds; Is There a Difference in Value-at-Risk?," IMF Working Papers 07/237, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Samuel Malone, 2005. "Managing Default Risk for Commodity Dependent Countries: Price Hedging in an Optimizing Model," Economics Series Working Papers 246, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Baglioni, Angelo & Cherubini, Umberto, 2013. "Marking-to-market government guarantees to financial systems – Theory and evidence for Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 990-1007.
    5. Martin Melecky, 2012. "Choosing The Currency Structure Of Foreign‐Currency Debt: A Review Of Policy Approaches," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 133-151, March.
    6. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2015. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults using Multiple Risk Signals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 66-92, February.
    7. Baglioni, Angelo & Cherubini, Umberto, 2013. "Within and between systemic country risk. Theory and evidence from the sovereign crisis in Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1581-1597.
    8. Dale F. Gray & Carlos J. García & Leonardo Luna & Jorge E. Restrepo, 2011. "Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models: Application to Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 6, pages 159-197 Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Lai, Wan-Ni, 2016. "Evaluating the sovereign and household credit risk in Singapore: A contingent claims approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 435-447.
    10. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-184.
    11. Agliardi, Elettra & Agliardi, Rossella & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2012. "A new country risk index for emerging markets: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 741-761.
    12. Arslanalp, Serkan & Liao, Yin, 2014. "Banking sector contingent liabilities and sovereign risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 316-330.
    13. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2017. "Systemic Financial Sector and Sovereign Risks," BCL working papers 109, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    14. Kalteier, Eva-Maria & Posch, Peter N., 2013. "Sovereign asset values and implications for the credit market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 53-60.
    15. Posch, Peter N & Kalteier, Eva-Maria, 2013. "Sovereign Asset Values and Implications for the Credit Market," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79986, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Marcos Souto & Benjamin M. Tabak & Francisco Vazquez, 2009. "Linking Financial and Macroeconomic Factors to Credit Risk Indicators of Brazilian Banks," Working Papers Series 189, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    17. Posch, Peter N & Bowden, Roger J & Kalteier, Eva-Maria, 2014. "The financial economics of sovereign asset value: functional perspectives and market outcomes," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100439, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Münür Yayla & Alper Hekimoglu & Mahmut Kutlukaya, 2008. "Financial Stability of the Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 2(1), pages 9-26.
    20. Eli M. Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2008. "A ratings-based approach to measuring sovereign risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 26-39.
    21. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2006. "A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager," IMF Working Papers 06/195, International Monetary Fund.
    22. repec:wsi:gcrxxx:v:02:y:2012:i:01:n:s2010493612500055 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Emmanuel Mamatzakis & Panos Remoundos, 2012. "What are the Driving Factors Behind the Rise of Spreads and CDS of Eurozone Sovereign Bonds? A Panel VAR Analysis," Global Credit Review (GCR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 79-94.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.