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Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies

  • Ceyla Pazarbasioglu
  • Gudrun Johnsen
  • Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers
  • Inci Ötker

This paper reviews trends in bank lending to the private sector, with a particular focus on Central and Eastern European countries, and finds that rapid growth of private sector credit continues to be a key challenge for most of these countries. The paper discusses possible implications for economic and financial stability and the policy options available to counter and reduce these risks. It argues that the authorities will need to focus on the implications for both the macro economy and the financial system and, depending on their assessment, may need a comprehensive policy response comprising a mix of macro and prudential policies. In particular where there are limitations to the effective use of monetary and fiscal measures, supervisory and prudential policy responses will have a key role in addressing financial stability concerns.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/151.

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Length: 58
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/151
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  1. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  2. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Financial Soundness Indicators: Analytical Aspects and Country Practices," IMF Occasional Papers 212, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Timothy S. Fuerst, 1994. "Monetary and financial interaction in the business cycle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1321-1353.
  5. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Ashoka Mody & Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Financial Reform: What Shakes it? What Shapes it?," IMF Working Papers 03/70, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Systemic Crises and Growth," Working Papers 190, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  8. Tomás J. T. Baliño & Charles Enoch & William E. Alexander, 1995. "The Adoption of Indirect Instruments of Monetary Policy," IMF Occasional Papers 126, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
    [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]
    ," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
  11. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises: The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Giovanni Favarra, 2003. "An Empirical Reassessment of the Relationship Between Finance and Growth," IMF Working Papers 03/123, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," NBER Working Papers 8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  15. Akira Ariyoshi & Andrei Kirilenko & Inci Ötker & Bernard Laurens & Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko & Karl Friedrich Habermeier, 2000. "Capital Controls: Country Experiences with Their Use and Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 190, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises: Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Real estate indicators and financial stability," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 21, 08-2015.
  18. Inci Ötker & R. B. Johnston, 1999. "A Modernized Approach to Managing the Risks in Cross-Border Capital Movements," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/6, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Otker, Inci & Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla, 1997. "Speculative attacks and macroeconomic fundamentals: evidence from some European currencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 847-860, April.
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