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The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules; How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?

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  • Robert Tchaidze
  • Alina Carare

Abstract

This paper draws attention to inconsistencies in estimating simple monetary policy rules and their implications for policy advice. We simulate a macroeconomic model with a backward reaction function similar to Taylor (1993). We estimate different versions of a policy rule, using these simulated data. Under certain circumstances, estimations document an illusionary presence of a lagged interest rate, or of forward-looking behavior. Our results are consistent with the fact that several authors found very different versions of monetary policy rules, all fitting the U.S. data well. We also survey the literature, providing a list of issues complicating practical use of Taylor rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Tchaidze & Alina Carare, 2005. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules; How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?," IMF Working Papers 05/148, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/148
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    Keywords

    Central banks and their policies; Central banks; Monetary policy; central bank; Taylor rules; inflation; monetary policy rules; monetary economics;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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