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Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies; The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine

Author

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  • Christoph Duenwald
  • Nikolay Gueorguiev
  • Andrea Schaechter

Abstract

Rapid credit growth in Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine has been driven by successful macroeconomic stabilization, robust growth, and capital inflows. While financial deepening is both expected and welcome, the recent expansions appear to have been excessive, as evidenced by widening current account deficits in Bulgaria and Romania, and prudential concerns in Ukraine. Policy responses have included attempts to both moderate credit growth and offset its impact on domestic demand, with mixed success thus far.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Duenwald & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Andrea Schaechter, 2005. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies; The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 05/128, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/128
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Conway, Patrick, 2012. "The exchange rate as nominal anchor: A test for Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 438-456.
    2. Shijaku, Gerti & Kalluci, Irini, 2013. "Determinants of bank credit to the private sector: The case of Albania," MPRA Paper 79092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hegerty, Scott W., 2009. "Capital inflows, exchange market pressure, and credit growth in four transition economies with fixed exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 155-167, June.
    4. Varlik Serdar & Berument M. Hakan, 2016. "Credit channel and capital flows: a macroprudential policy tool? Evidence from Turkey," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 145-170, January.
    5. Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera & Andriy Tsapin, 2008. "Corporate Debt Maturity Choice in Transition Financial Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 784, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Binici, Mahir & Köksal, Bülent, 2012. "Türkiye'de Aşırı Kredi Genişlemeleri ve Belirleyicileri
      [Determinants of Credit Booms in Turkey]
      ," MPRA Paper 38032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The overheating of five EU new member states and cyclicality of systemic risk in the banking sector," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 219-232, May.
    8. Mircea Epure & Irina Mihai & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró, 2017. "Household Credit, Global Financial Cycle, and Macroprudential Policies: Credit Register Evidence from an Emerging Country," Working Papers 1006, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Jean-Marc Figuet & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2006. "Convergence and shocks in the road to EU: Empirical investigations for Bulgaria and Romania," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp810, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
    11. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hainz, Christa, 2010. "Default rates in the loan market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 133-147, June.
    12. Backé, Peter & Wójcik, Cezary, 2008. "Credit booms, monetary integration and the new neoclassical synthesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 458-470, March.
    13. Peter Peshev, 2014. "Bank Lending Dynamics in Bulgaria," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 20-29, April.
    14. Stephan, Andreas & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy, 2011. "Corporate debt maturity choice in emerging financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 141-151, May.
    15. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," MPRA Paper 6759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. repec:taf:ceasxx:v:65:y:2013:i:3:p:528-547 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Peter Backé & Cezary Wójcik, 2006. "Catching-up and Credit Booms in Central and Eastern European EU Member States and Acceding Countries: An Interpretation within the New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 1836, CESifo Group Munich.
    18. Eftychia Nikolaidou & Sofoklis Vogiazas, 2014. "Credit Risk Determinants for the Bulgarian Banking System," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 87-102, February.
    19. Alenka Kavkler & Mejra Festić, 2010. "The Trade Deficit and Banking Sector Results in Romania and Bulgaria," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 199-213, February.
    20. Thorolfur Matthiasson, 2008. "Spinning out of control, Iceland in crisis," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 34, pages 1-3.
    21. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Maria Silgoner, 2008. "Fundamentals, the exchange rate and prospects for the current and future EU enlargements: evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 195-211, April.
    22. Büyükkarabacak, Berrak & Valev, Neven T., 2010. "The role of household and business credit in banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1247-1256, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central banks and their policies; Romania; Bulgaria; Ukraine; Credit boom; financial deepening; transition; banking; banking crises; banking sector; capital adequacy; Open Economy Macroeconomics;

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