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What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis

  • Martin Cerisola
  • Gaston Gelos

This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of survey inflation expectations in Brazil since the adoption of inflation targeting in 1999. The results suggest that the inflation targeting framework has helped anchor expectations, with the dispersion of inflation expectations declining considerably, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. We also find that apart from the inflation target, the stance of fiscal policy, as proxied by the ratio of the consolidated primary surplus to GDP, has been instrumental in shaping expectations. The importance of past inflation in determining expectations appears to be relatively low, and the overall empirical evidence does not suggest the presence of substantial inertia in the inflation process.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/109.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/109
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  1. Campêlo, Ana Katarina & Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 2003. "Inflation Inertia and Inliers: The Case of Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 57(4), October.
  2. Joel Bogdanski & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Alexandre Antonio Tombini, 2001. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: shocks, backward-looking prices, and IMF conditionality," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 82-108 Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati & Oya Celasun, 2004. "Obstacles to Disinflation; What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?," IMF Working Papers 04/111, International Monetary Fund.
  5. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility Under Exchange Rate Volatility," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b26, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  6. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May.
  8. Corbo, Vittorio & Landerretche, Oscar & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2001. "Assessing Inflation Targeting after a Decade of World Experience," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 343-68, October.
  9. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers Series 76, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  10. MINELLA André & DE FREITAS Paulo Springer & GOLDFAJN Ilan & KFOURY MUINHOS Marcelo, . "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility," EcoMod2003 330700103, EcoMod.
  11. Reisen Valderio A & Cribari-Neto Francisco & Jensen Mark J, 2003. "Long Memory Inflationary Dynamics: The Case of Brazil," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-18, October.
  12. Novaes, Ana Dolores, 1993. "Revisiting the inertial inflation hypothesis for Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 89-110, October.
  13. Cati, Regina Celia & Garcia, Marcio G P & Perron, Pierre, 1999. "Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 27-56, Jan.-Feb..
  14. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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