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Can Debt Crises Be Self-Fulfilling?

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  • Marcos Chamon

Abstract

Several papers argue that debt crises can be the result of self-fulfilling expectations that no one will lend to a country. I show this type of coordination failure can be eliminated by a combination of state-contingent securities and a mechanism that allows investors to promise to lend only if enough other investors do so as well. This suggests that runs on the debt of a single borrower (such as the government) can be eliminated, and that self-fulfilling features are more plausible when articulated in a context in which externalities among many decentralized borrowers allow for economy-wide debt runs to occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Chamon, 2004. "Can Debt Crises Be Self-Fulfilling?," IMF Working Papers 04/99, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/99
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Niepelt, Dirk, 2014. "Debt maturity without commitment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 37-54.
    2. Cohen, Daniel & Villemot, Sébastien, 2015. "Endogenous debt crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 337-369.
    3. Guido Lorenzoni & Ivan Werning, 2013. "Slow Moving Debt Crises," NBER Working Papers 19228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard & Hoops, Stefan, 2008. "A Cheap Lunch for Emerging Markets: Removing International Financial Market Imperfections with Modern Financial Instruments," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1514-1530, September.
    5. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2009. "The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 651-698, September.
    6. Eduardo Borensztein & Olivier D Jeanne & Paolo Mauro & Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Marcos Chamon, 2005. "Sovereign Debt Structure for Crisis Prevention," IMF Occasional Papers 237, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Trebesch, Christoph, 2008. "Delays in Sovereign Debt Restructurings. Should we really blame the creditors?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 44, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    8. Dirk Niepelt, 2009. "Sovereign Debt Maturity without Commitment," 2009 Meeting Papers 231, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2016. "The Mystery Of The Printing Press: Monetary Policy And Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(6), pages 1329-1371, December.
    10. Lorenzoni, Guido, 2014. "International Financial Crises," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.

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