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Economic Performance Over the Conflict Cycle


  • Nicholas Staines


The paper finds a significant shift in the economic characteristics of civil conflicts during the1990s. Conflicts have become shorter but with more severe contractions and a stronger recovery of growth. The overall length and cost of the conflict cycle has probably declined. The stance of macroeconomic policy was an important factor while the underlying "conflict process" remained unchanged. This shift seems related to changes in aid flows since the Cold War: donors became disinclined to provide support during conflict, but more inclined after conflict. These findings are buttressed by the post-conflict experience of countries that received financial assistance from the IMF and of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). These findings have implications for policy and aid priorities after conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Staines, 2004. "Economic Performance Over the Conflict Cycle," IMF Working Papers 04/95, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/95

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Arunatilake, Nisha & Jayasuriya, Sisira & Kelegama, Saman, 2001. "The Economic Cost of the War in Sri Lanka," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1483-1500, September.
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    6. James Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Civil wars and economic growth: A regional comparison," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 451-464.
    7. Philip R. Gerson, 1998. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy Variables on Output Growth," IMF Working Papers 98/1, International Monetary Fund.
    8. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
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    10. Catao, Luis A.V. & Terrones, Marco E., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 529-554, April.
    11. Caplan, B., 2002. "How does war shock the economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-162, April.
    12. Kosuke Imai & Jeremy M. Weinstein, 2000. "Measuring the Economic Impact of Civil War," CID Working Papers 51, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    13. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2002. "The Temporal Links between Conflict and Economic Activity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 74-90, February.
    14. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Sambanis, Nicholas, 2000. "External interventions and the duration of civil wars," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2433, The World Bank.
    15. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13938, June.
    16. Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Shamit Chakravarti & Rina Bhattacharya, 2002. "Fiscal Consequences of Armed Conflict and Terrorism in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/142, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Exenberger & Simon Hartmann, "undated". "The Dark Side of Globalization. The Vicious Cycle of Exploitation from World Market Integration: Lesson from the Congo," Working Papers 2007-31, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    2. Ibrahim Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2013. "Aid, Exchange Rate Regimes and Post-conflict Monetary Stabilization," Working Papers 751, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2013.
    3. Antonio David & Fabiano Rodrigues Rodrigues Bastos & Marshall Mills, 2011. "Post-Conflict Recovery; Institutions, Aid, or Luck?," IMF Working Papers 11/149, International Monetary Fund.
    4. repec:eme:jespps:jes-01-2015-0021 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Nusrate Aziz & M. Niaz Asadullah, 2017. "Military spending, armed conflict and economic growth in developing countries in the post-Cold War era," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 47-68, January.


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