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Productivity Shocks, Learning, and Open Economy Dynamics

  • Jacques Miniane
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    I study the implications of productivity shocks in a model where agents observe the aggregate level of productivity but not its permanent and transitory components separately. The model's predictions under learning differ substantially from those under full information and are in line with several empirical findings: (i) the response of investment to a permanent shock is sluggish and peaks with delay; (ii) permanent shocks generate positive rather than negative savings on impact; and (iii) saving and investment are highly correlated despite the assumption of capital mobility. Unlike other standard explanations of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, learning induces high correlations irrespective of the assumed persistence of shocks.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/88.

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    Length: 28
    Date of creation: 01 May 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/88
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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff & Ben Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, . "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?," Working Paper 32326, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    2. Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialised Countries: Too Little or Too Much?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 107-28, January.
    3. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    4. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1991. "Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international co-movements," Working Paper 9019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M.J., 1990. "Explaining Saving/Investment Correlation," RCER Working Papers 224, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    6. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 111-17, May.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Capital Mobility in the World Economy: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 1692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Reuven Glick & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1993. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," International Finance Discussion Papers 443, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1987. "Are Cyclical Fluctuations in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks or Demand Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 2147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Engel, Charles & Kletzer, Kenneth, 1989. "Saving and Investment in an Open Economy with Non-traded Goods," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 735-52, November.
    11. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
    12. repec:oup:restud:v:63:y:1996:i:4:p:523-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    14. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2003. "Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception," CEPR Discussion Papers 3725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1989. "International evidence on the persistence of economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 319-333, March.
    16. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps," NBER Working Papers 8614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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